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Growth in the shadow of debt

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  • Lim, Jamus Jerome

Abstract

This paper revisits the relationship between debt and growth from a vantage point that considers the totality of private and public debt. We exploit quarter-long timing lags inherent in the response of borrowing to innovations in output to identify the effects of debt on growth in a panel vector autoregressive model. We verify that debt accumulation is negatively related to output growth, with a one standard deviation innovation in the former leading to a 0.2 percentage-point contraction in the latter. This result is robust to the inclusion of exogenous variables in the system, alternative measures of the endogenous variables, and varying temporal treatments. We also find variations depending on the type of debt accumulated, the specific subset of countries considered, and the channels along which debt expansion operates.

Suggested Citation

  • Lim, Jamus Jerome, 2019. "Growth in the shadow of debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 98-112.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:103:y:2019:i:c:p:98-112
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2019.04.002
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    2. Lim, Jamus Jerome, 2020. "The political economy of fiscal procyclicality," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Alimov, Behzod, 2022. "The dynamic effects of debt and equity inflows: Evidence from emerging and developing countries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    4. Xiangfa Li & Zhe Zhang & Weixian Xue & Hua Wang, 2022. "The Effects of Household Debt and Oil Price Shocks on Economic Growth in the Shadow of the Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-16, November.
    5. João Tovar Jalles & Paulo Medas, 2022. "Economic Growth after Debt Surges," Working Papers REM 2022/0244, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    6. Nikolaos Filippakis & Theodoros V. Stamatopoulos, 2021. "Public Debt and Economic Growth: A Review of Contemporary Literature," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 19(1), pages 33-50.
    7. Attahir Babaji Abubakar, 2020. "Does fiscal tightening (loosening) reduce public debt?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 32(4), pages 528-539, December.
    8. Fir Nejc, 2022. "Does Debt Have Threshold Effects on Medium-Term Growth? Evidence from European Union Countries," Naše gospodarstvo/Our economy, Sciendo, vol. 68(2), pages 1-18, June.
    9. Jimenez, Ivett & Alvarado, Rafael, 2022. "Análisis sobre la incidencia de la deuda pública en el crecimiento económico de Ecuador durante el periodo 1990-2019 [Analysis of the incidence of public debt on the economic growth of Ecuador duri," MPRA Paper 113666, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; Total debt; Panel VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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