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Real Interest Rate Linkages: Testing for Common Trends and Cycles

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Author Info
Darren Pain
Ryland Thomas

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Abstract

This paper formed part of the Bank of England's contribution to a study by the G10 Deputies on saving, investment and real interest rates. It investigates a technique which allows economic times series to be decomposed into common trends and common cycles. This is applied to the movements of industrial countries' real interest rates. Two sets of real interest rates are considered: European short maturity rates and G3 long maturity rates. The analysis of European short rates reveals statistical evidence that the German real interest rate is the single dominant common trend and that the two common cycles are represented by the spreads of French and UK rates over German rates. The single common trend remains when the United States is added, but German leadership is then rejected in favour of US leadership. In the G3 long rate system, a single common trend appears to exist only after 1980.

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Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 65.

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Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:65

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 369-80, October.
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  2. Farshid Vahid & Robert F. Engle, 1993. "Non-Synchronous Common Cycles," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 93-55, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  3. Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-60, Oct.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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  5. Barro, R.J. & Martin, X.S., 1990. "World Real Interest Rates," RCER Working Papers 227, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
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  6. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Rose, Andrew Kenan, 1988. " Is the Real Interest Rate Stable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1095-1112, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Katsimbris, George M & Miller, Stephen M, 1993. "Interest Rate Linkages within the European Monetary System: Further Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(4), pages 771-79, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. De Grauwe, Paul, 1989. "Is the European Monetary System a DM-Zone?," CEPR Discussion Papers 297, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Bagher Modjtahedi, 1987. "An Empirical Investigation into the International Real Interest Rate Linkages," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 20(4), pages 832-54, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Bhargava, Alok, 1986. "On the Theory of Testing for Unit Roots in Observed Time Series," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(3), pages 369-84, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1994. "Identification of the long-run and the short-run structure an application to the ISLM model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 7-36, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Karfakis, Costas J & Moschos, Demetrios M, 1990. "Interest Rate Linkages within the European Monetary System: A Time Series Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(3), pages 389-94, August.
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  14. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
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  1. Chan, Tze-Haw & Khong, Wye Leong Roy & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi, 2003. "Dynamic Financial Linkages of Japan and ASEAN Economies: An Application of Real Interest Parity," MPRA Paper 2209, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2003. [Downloadable!]
  2. Chan, Tze-Haw, 2008. "International Parities among China and Her Major Trading Partners in Asia Pacific," MPRA Paper 15504, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Apr 2009. [Downloadable!]
  3. Christian Upper & Andreas Worms, 2003. "Real long-term interest rates and monetary policy: a cross-country perspective," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 234-257 Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  4. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Chan, Tze-Haw & Masih, A. Mansur A. & Lau, Evan, 2007. "Financial Integration of East Asian Economies: Evidence from Real Interest Parity," MPRA Paper 2210, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Jun 2007. [Downloadable!]
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