Drivers of exchange rate dynamics in selected CIS countries: Evidence from a FAVAR analysis
AbstractWe investigate the likely sources of exchange rate dynamics in selected CIS countries (Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, Azerbaijan, and Moldova) over the last dec-ade (1999-2010). Evidence is based on country VARs augmented by a regional com-mon factor structure (FAVAR model). The models include nominal exchange rates, the common factor of exchange rates in the CIS countries, and international drivers such as global trade, share prices, and oil price. Global, regional and idiosyncratic shocks are identified in a standard Cholesky fashion. Their relevance for exchange rates is ex-plored by a decomposition of the variance of forecast errors. The impact of global shocks to in the developments of exchange rates has increased, in particular, if financial shocks are considered. Because of the financial crisis, regional shocks have become more important at the expense of global shocks.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and South-East European Studies) in its series Working Papers with number 289.
Date of creation: Aug 2010
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Christian Dreger & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2009. "Drivers of Exchange Rate Dynamics in Selected CIS Countries: Evidence from a FAVAR Analysis," Working Paper / FINESS 5.6, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Christian Dreger & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2009. "Drivers of Exchange Rate Dynamics in Selected CIS Countries: Evidence from a FAVAR Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 867, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-09-11 (All new papers)
- NEP-CIS-2010-09-11 (Confederation of Independent States)
- NEP-IFN-2010-09-11 (International Finance)
- NEP-TRA-2010-09-11 (Transition Economics)
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