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The Outbreak of the Russian Banking Crisis

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Author Info
Fidrmuc, Jarko
Süß, Philipp Johann

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Abstract

Russian banks have been strongly influenced by the worldwide financial crisis which started in the second half of 2008. This was caused by a combination of domestic, regional and international factors. We estimate an early warning model for the Russian crisis. We identified 47 Russian banks which failed after September 2008. Using the Bankscope data set, we show that balance sheet indicators were informative about possible failures of these banks as early as 2006. The early predictive indicators include especially equity, net interest revenues, return on average equity, net loans, and loan loss reserves.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Munich, Department of Economics in its series Discussion Papers in Economics with number 10996.

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Date of creation: 17 Sep 2009
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Handle: RePEc:lmu:muenec:10996

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Related research
Keywords: Banking and financial crisis; early warning models; Russia; Logit.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages
C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Karas, Alexei & Schoors , Koen & Weill, Laurent, 2008. "Are private banks more efficient than public banks? Evidence from Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2008, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Hwang, Dar-Yeh & Lee, Cheng F. & Liaw, K. Thomas, 1997. "Forecasting bank failures and deposit insurance premium," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 317-334. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Peresetsky, Anatoly A. & Karminsky, Alexandr A. & Golovan, Sergei V., 2004. "Probability of default models of Russian banks," BOFIT Discussion Papers 21/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  4. Sinkey, Joseph F, Jr, 1975. "A Multivariate Statistical Analysis of the Characteristics of Problem Banks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(1), pages 21-36, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Arturo Estrella & Sangkyun Park & Stavros Peristiani, 2000. "Capital ratios as predictors of bank failure," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 33-52. [Downloadable!]
  6. Männasoo, Kadri & Mayes, David G., 2009. "Explaining bank distress in Eastern European transition economies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 244-253, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Martin, Daniel, 1977. "Early warning of bank failure : A logit regression approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 249-276, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Kares, Alexei & Schoors , Koen & Lanine, Gleb, 2008. "Liquidity matters: Evidence from the Russian interbank market," BOFIT Discussion Papers 19/2008, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Fungacova, Zuzana & Weill, Laurent, 2009. "How market power influences bank failures: Evidence from Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2009, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
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