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The Outbreak of the Russian Banking Crisis

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  • Fidrmuc, Jarko
  • Süß, Philipp Johann

Abstract

Russian banks have been strongly influenced by the worldwide financial crisis which started in the second half of 2008. This was caused by a combination of domestic, regional and international factors. We estimate an early warning model for the Russian crisis. We identified 47 Russian banks which failed after September 2008. Using the Bankscope data set, we show that balance sheet indicators were informative about possible failures of these banks as early as 2006. The early predictive indicators include especially equity, net interest revenues, return on average equity, net loans, and loan loss reserves.

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Paper provided by University of Munich, Department of Economics in its series Discussion Papers in Economics with number 10996.

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Date of creation: 17 Sep 2009
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Handle: RePEc:lmu:muenec:10996

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Keywords: Banking and financial crisis; early warning models; Russia; Logit.;

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  1. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2008. "Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison," Scholarly Articles 11129156, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  2. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
  3. A. Karas & K. Schoors & G. Lanine, 2008. "Liquidity matters: Evidence from the Russian interbank market," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 08/520, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 14656, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Männasoo, Kadri & Mayes, David G., 2009. "Explaining bank distress in Eastern European transition economies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 244-253, February.
  6. Hwang, Dar-Yeh & Lee, Cheng F. & Liaw, K. Thomas, 1997. "Forecasting bank failures and deposit insurance premium," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 317-334.
  7. Zuzana Fungacova & Laurent Weill, 2010. "How Market Power Influences Bank Failures Evidence from Russia," Working Papers of LaRGE Research Center 2010-08, Laboratoire de Recherche en Gestion et Economie (LaRGE), Université de Strasbourg.
  8. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. A. Karas & K. Schoors & L. Weill, 2008. "Are private banks more efficient than public banks? Evidence from Russia," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 08/519, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  10. Christian Dreger & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2010. "Drivers of exchange rate dynamics in selected CIS countries: Evidence from a FAVAR analysis," Working Papers 289, Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and South-East European Studies).
  11. Evžen Koèenda & Jan Hanousek & Peter Ondko, 2007. "The Banking Sector in New EU Member Countries: A Sectoral Financial Flows Analysis (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(5-6), pages 200-224, August.
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  13. Sinkey, Joseph F, Jr, 1975. "A Multivariate Statistical Analysis of the Characteristics of Problem Banks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(1), pages 21-36, March.
  14. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 2005. "Cross-Country Empirical Studies of Systemic Bank Distress: A Survey," IMF Working Papers 05/96, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Davis, E. Philip & Karim, Dilruba, 2008. "Comparing early warning systems for banking crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 89-120, June.
  16. Peresetsky, Anatoly A. & Karminsky, Alexandr A. & Golovan, Sergei V., 2004. "Probability of default models of Russian banks," BOFIT Discussion Papers 21/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  17. Martin, Daniel, 1977. "Early warning of bank failure : A logit regression approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 249-276, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Andrei Vernikov, 2011. "Government Banking in Russia: Magnitude and New Features," IWH Discussion Papers 13, Halle Institute for Economic Research.

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