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The Ruble between the Hammer and the Anvil: Oil Prices and Economic Sanctions

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  • Christian Dreger
  • Jarko Fidrmuc
  • Konstantin Kholodilin
  • Dirk Ulbricht

Abstract

The exchange rate fluctuations strongly affect the Russian economy, given its heavy dependence on foreign trade and investment. Since January 2014, the Ruble lost 50% of its value against the US Dollar. The fall of the currency started with the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The impact of the conflict on Russia may have been amplified by sanctions imposed by Western countries. However, as Russia is heavily dependent on exports of natural resources, the oil price decline starting in Summer 2014 could be another factor behind the deterioration. By using high frequency data on nominal exchange and interest rates, oil prices, actual and unanticipated sanctions, we provide evidence on the driving forces of the Ruble exchange rate. The analysis is based on cointegrated VAR models, where fundamental long-run relationships are implicitly embedded. The results indicate that the bulk of the depreciation can be related to the decline of oil prices. In addition, unanticipated sanctions matter for the conditional volatility of the variables involved.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Dreger & Jarko Fidrmuc & Konstantin Kholodilin & Dirk Ulbricht, 2015. "The Ruble between the Hammer and the Anvil: Oil Prices and Economic Sanctions," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1488, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1488
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    Cited by:

    1. Matthieu Crozet & Julian Hinz, 2016. "Collateral Damage: The impact of the Russia sanctions on sanctioning countries’ exports," Working Papers 2016-16, CEPII research center.
    2. Hinz, Julian, 2017. "The cost of sanctions: Estimating lost trade with gravity," Kiel Working Papers 2093, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Mirzosaid Sultonov, 2020. "The Impact of International Sanctions on Russian Financial Markets," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-14, December.
    4. Jonas Frank, 2017. "The empirical consequences of trade sanctions for directly and indirectly affected countries," FIW Working Paper series 174, FIW.
    5. Hinz, Julian & Monastyrenko, Evgenii, 2022. "Bearing the cost of politics: Consumer prices and welfare in Russia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    6. Elisabeth Christen & Oliver Fritz & Gerhard Streicher & Julian Hinz, 2016. "Auswirkungen der Wirtschaftssanktionen der EU und Russlands auf Wertschöpfung und Beschäftigung in Österreich und der EU," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 59227, February.
    7. Klose, Jens, 2024. "Empirical effects of sanctions and support measures on stock prices and exchange rates in the Russia–Ukraine war," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    8. Ahn, Daniel P. & Ludema, Rodney D., 2020. "The sword and the shield: The economics of targeted sanctions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    9. V. Arkhipova V. & В. Архипова В., 2017. "Современный санкционный режим в отношении России: характеристика и глобальный аспект // Current Sanctions Regime Against Russia: Characteristics and Global Aspect," Мир новой экономики // The world of new economy, Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Governtment оf The Russian Federation, issue 2, pages 13-19.
    10. Frank, Jonas, 2018. "The effects of economic sanctions on trade: New evidence from a panel PPML gravity approach," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 17-2018, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    11. Matthieu Crozet & Julian Hinz, 2020. "Friendly fire: the trade impact of the Russia sanctions and counter-sanctions," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 35(101), pages 97-146.
    12. Mirzosaid Sultonov, 2022. "Regional Economic and Financial Interconnectedness and the Impact of Sanctions: The Case of the Commonwealth of Independent States," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-18, November.
    13. Peeva, Aleksandra, 2019. "Did sanctions help Putin?," Discussion Papers 2019/7, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    14. Aleksei Anatolievich Ustiuzhanin & Irina Aleksandrovna Liman & Elena Petrovna Kiselitsa & Natalia Nikolaevna Shilova & Tatiana Ivanovna Leyman, 2019. "The ruble exchange rate and the price of oil: assessment of the degree of dependence, its causes and ways of overcoming," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 7(1), pages 121-132, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Military conflict; sanctions; oil prices; Ruble depreciation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

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