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The Outbreak of the Russian Banking Crisis

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  • Jarko Fidrmuc

    ()
    (Zeppelin University, Friedrichshafen, Germany
    CESifo, Munich, Germany
    Institute for Eastern European Studies, Regensburg, Germany
    Comenius University Bratislava, Faculty of Mathematics, Physics and Informatics, Slovakia)

  • Philipp J. Süss

    ()
    (UniCredit Bank AG Munich, Germany)

Abstract

Owing to a combination of domestic, regional and international factors, Russian banks have been strongly influenced by the worldwide financial crisis which started in the second half of 2008. In this paper, we estimate an early warning model for the Russian banking crisis. In a first step, we identify 47 Russian banks which failed after September 2008. Using the Bankscope dataset, we then show that balance sheet indicators were informative as early as in 2006 and 2007 about possible failures of these banks. Especially equity, net interest revenues, return on average equity, net loans, and loan loss reserves are identified as the early indicators with high predictive power.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies in its journal AUCO Czech Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 5 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 046-063

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Handle: RePEc:fau:aucocz:au2011_046

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Keywords: Banking and financial crisis; early warning models; Russia; logit;

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References

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  1. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 7209, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Peresetsky, A. A. & Karminsky, A. M., 2011. "Models for Moody’s bank ratings," MPRA Paper 34864, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Kares, Alexei & Schoors , Koen & Lanine, Gleb, 2008. "Liquidity matters: Evidence from the Russian interbank market," BOFIT Discussion Papers 19/2008, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  5. Alexei Karas & Koen Schoors & Laurent Weill, 2008. "Are private banks more efficient than public banks ? Evidence from Russia," Working Papers of LaRGE Research Center 2008-15, Laboratoire de Recherche en Gestion et Economie (LaRGE), Université de Strasbourg.
  6. Sinkey, Joseph F, Jr, 1975. "A Multivariate Statistical Analysis of the Characteristics of Problem Banks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(1), pages 21-36, March.
  7. Anatoly Peresetsky & Alexandr Karminsky & Sergei Golovan, 2011. "Probability of default models of Russian banks," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 297-334, November.
  8. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
  9. Zuzana Fungáčová & Laurent Weill, 2013. "Does competition influence bank failures?," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 21(2), pages 301-322, 04.
  10. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 2005. "Cross-Country Empirical Studies of Systemic Bank Distress: A Survey," IMF Working Papers 05/96, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Hwang, Dar-Yeh & Lee, Cheng F. & Liaw, K. Thomas, 1997. "Forecasting bank failures and deposit insurance premium," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 317-334.
  12. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2008. "Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison," Scholarly Articles 11129156, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  13. Davis, E. Philip & Karim, Dilruba, 2008. "Comparing early warning systems for banking crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 89-120, June.
  14. Martin, Daniel, 1977. "Early warning of bank failure : A logit regression approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 249-276, November.
  15. Arturo Estrella & Sangkyun Park & Stavros Peristiani, 2000. "Capital ratios as predictors of bank failure," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 33-52.
  16. Männasoo, Kadri & Mayes, David G., 2009. "Explaining bank distress in Eastern European transition economies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 244-253, February.
  17. Christian Dreger & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2010. "Drivers of exchange rate dynamics in selected CIS countries: Evidence from a FAVAR analysis," Working Papers 289, Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and South-East European Studies).
  18. Evžen Koèenda & Jan Hanousek & Peter Ondko, 2007. "The Banking Sector in New EU Member Countries: A Sectoral Financial Flows Analysis (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(5-6), pages 200-224, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Andrei Vernikov, 2011. "Government Banking in Russia: Magnitude and New Features," IWH Discussion Papers 13, Halle Institute for Economic Research.

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