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Probability of default models of Russian banks

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  • Anatoly Peresetsky

    ()

  • Alexandr Karminsky
  • Sergei Golovan

Abstract

This paper presents results from an econometric analysis of Russian bank defaults during the period 1997–2003, focusing on the extent to which publicly available information from quarterly bank balance sheets is useful in predicting future defaults. Binary choice models are estimated to construct the probability of default model. We find that preliminary expert clustering or automatic clustering improves the predictive power of the models and incor-poration of macrovariables into the models is useful. Heuristic criteria are suggested to help compare model performance from the perspectives of investors or banks supervision authorities. Russian banking system trends after the crisis 1998 are analyzed with rolling regressions.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10644-011-9103-2
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Economic Change and Restructuring.

Volume (Year): 44 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 297-334

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Handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:44:y:2011:i:4:p:297-334

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=113294

Related research

Keywords: Banks; Russia; Probability of default model; Early warning systems; C35; C52; F39; G21;

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References

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  1. Kolari, James & Glennon, Dennis & Shin, Hwan & Caputo, Michele, 2002. "Predicting large US commercial bank failures," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 361-387.
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  14. Soest, A.H.O. van & Peresetsky, A. & Karminsky, A.M., 2003. "An Analysis of Ratings of Russian Banks," Discussion Paper 2003-85, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  15. Peresetsky, Anatoly A. & Karminsky, Alexandr A. & Golovan, Sergei V., 2004. "Probability of default models of Russian banks," BOFIT Discussion Papers 21/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
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  20. Gunther, Jeffery W. & Moore, Robert R., 2003. "Early warning models in real time," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 1979-2001, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Süß, Philipp Johann, 2009. "The Outbreak of the Russian Banking Crisis," Discussion Papers in Economics 10996, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  2. Andrey Zubarev, 2013. "Russian Banking System: Stability Factors In the Wake of 2008-2009 Crisis," Working Papers 0049, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2013.
  3. Fungacova, Zuzana & Weill, Laurent, 2009. "How market power influences bank failures: Evidence from Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2009, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  4. A. Karas & K. Schoors & G. Lanine, 2008. "Liquidity matters: Evidence from the Russian interbank market," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 08/520, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  5. Salvador Marín Hernández & Ester Gras Gil & Marcos Antón Renart, 2011. "Financial information and restructuring of spanish savings banks in a context of crisis. Changes in the regulation; content and evolution of FROB," CIRIEC-España, revista de economía pública, social y cooperativa, CIRIEC-España, issue 73, pages 99-126, October.
  6. Claeys, Sophie, 2005. "Optimal regulatory design for the Central Bank of Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2005, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  7. Peresetsky, Anatoly A. & Karminsky, Alexandr A. & Golovan, Sergei V., 2004. "Probability of default models of Russian banks," BOFIT Discussion Papers 21/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  8. Salnikov, V. & Mogilat, A. & Maslov, I., 2012. "Stress Testing for Russian Real Sector: First Approach," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 46-70.
  9. Peresetsky, A.A. & Karminsky, A.M. & Golovan, S.V., 2007. "Russian banks´ private deposit interest rates and market discipline," BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  10. Alexander Karminsky & Alexander Kostrov & Taras Murzenkov, 2012. "Comparison of default probability models: Russian experience," HSE Working papers WP BRP 06/FE/2012, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  11. Peresetsky, A. A., 2011. "What factors drive the Russian banks license withdrawal," MPRA Paper 41507, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Karminsky, A. & Kostrov, A., 2013. "Modeling the Default Probabilities of Russian Banks: Extended Abillities," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 64-86.
  13. Peresetsky, Anatoly, 2013. "Modeling reasons for Russian bank license withdrawal: Unaccounted factors," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 30(2), pages 49-64.

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