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Financial crises and bank failures: A review of prediction methods

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  • Demyanyk, Yuliya
  • Hasan, Iftekhar

Abstract

In this article we provide a summary of empirical results obtained in several economics and operations research papers that attempt to explain, predict, or suggest remedies for financial crises or banking defaults; we also outline the methodologies used in them. We analyze financial and economic circumstances associated with the US subprime mortgage crisis and the global financial turmoil that has led to severe crises in many countries. The intent of this article is to promote future empirical research for preventing bank failures and financial crises.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Omega.

Volume (Year): 38 (2010)
Issue (Month): 5 (October)
Pages: 315-324

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:38:y:2010:i:5:p:315-324

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Keywords: Subprime Mortgage Financial crisis Default;

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References

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  1. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2008. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the 2007 Mortgage Default Crisis," NBER Working Papers 13936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Molina, Carlos A., 2002. "Predicting bank failures using a hazard model: the Venezuelan banking crisis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 31-50, March.
  3. Tam, KY, 1991. "Neural network models and the prediction of bank bankruptcy," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 429-445.
  4. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. " A Survey of Corporate Governance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 737-83, June.
  5. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica & Gupta, Poonam, 2006. "Inside the crisis: An empirical analysis of banking systems in distress," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 702-718, August.
  6. Deng, Yongheng, 1997. "Mortgage Termination: An Empirical Hazard Model with a Stochastic Term Structure," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 309-31, May.
  7. Yuliya Demyanyk & Otto Van Hemert, 2008. "Understanding the subprime mortgage crisis," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 171-192.
  8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "Is the 2007 U.S. Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison," NBER Working Papers 13761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. West, Robert Craig, 1985. "A factor-analytic approach to bank condition," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 253-266, June.
  10. John M. Clapp & Yongheng Deng & Xudong An, 2006. "Unobserved Heterogeneity in Models of Competing Mortgage Termination Risks," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 34(2), pages 243-273, 06.
  11. Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, . "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Zell/Lurie Center Working Papers 322, Wharton School Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center, University of Pennsylvania.
  12. Asli Demirguc-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 2000. "Does Deposit Insurance Increase Banking System Stability? An Empirical Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1751, Econometric Society.
  13. Ambrose, Brent W & Capone, Charles A, 2000. "The Hazard Rates of First and Second Defaults," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 275-93, May.
  14. David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 2000. "Why do Banks Disappear? The Determinants of U.S. Bank Failures and Acquisitions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 127-138, February.
  15. Fotios Pasiouras & Chrysovalantis Gaganis & Michael Doumpos, 2007. "A multicriteria discrimination approach for the credit rating of Asian banks," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 351-367, July.
  16. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, 09.
  17. Pennington-Cross, Anthony, 2003. "Credit History and the Performance of Prime and Nonprime Mortgages," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 279-301, November.
  18. Cielen, Anja & Peeters, Ludo & Vanhoof, Koen, 2004. "Bankruptcy prediction using a data envelopment analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 154(2), pages 526-532, April.
  19. Martin, Daniel, 1977. "Early warning of bank failure : A logit regression approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 249-276, November.
  20. Kolari, James & Glennon, Dennis & Shin, Hwan & Caputo, Michele, 2002. "Predicting large US commercial bank failures," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 361-387.
  21. Calhoun, Charles A & Deng, Yongheng, 2002. "A Dynamic Analysis of Fixed- and Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Terminations," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1-2), pages 9-33, Jan.-Marc.
  22. Zopounidis, Constantin & Doumpos, Michael, 1999. "A Multicriteria Decision Aid Methodology for Sorting Decision Problems: The Case of Financial Distress," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 14(3), pages 197-218, December.
  23. Canbas, Serpil & Cabuk, Altan & Kilic, Suleyman Bilgin, 2005. "Prediction of commercial bank failure via multivariate statistical analysis of financial structures: The Turkish case," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 166(2), pages 528-546, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Peter Sarlin & Tuomas A. Peltonen, 2011. "Mapping the state of financial stability," Working Paper Series 1382, European Central Bank.
  2. Pierluigi Bologna, 2011. "Is There a Role for Funding in Explaining Recent U.S. Banks' Failures?," IMF Working Papers 11/180, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Li, Xiaofei & Escalante, Cesar L. & Epperson, James E. & Gunter, Lewell F., 2012. "Agricultural Banking and Early Warning Models for the Bank Failures of the Late 2000s Great Recession," 2012 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2012, Birmingham, Alabama 119656, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
  4. William Lang & Julapa Jagtiani, 2010. "The Mortgage and Financial Crises: The Role of Credit Risk Management and Corporate Governance," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 38(2), pages 123-144, June.
  5. Jin, Justin Yiqiang & Kanagaretnam, Kiridaran & Lobo, Gerald J., 2011. "Ability of accounting and audit quality variables to predict bank failure during the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2811-2819, November.
  6. Carlos Serrano-Cinca & Y. Fuertes-Callén & Begoña Gutiérrez-Nieto & B. Cuéllar-Fernández, 2011. "Path modeling to bankruptcy: causes and symptoms of the banking crisis," Working Papers CEB 11-007, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  7. Tatom, John, 2011. "Predicting failure in the commercial banking industry," MPRA Paper 34608, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Premachandra, I.M. & Chen, Yao & Watson, John, 2011. "DEA as a tool for predicting corporate failure and success: A case of bankruptcy assessment," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 620-626, December.
  9. Ioannidis, Christos & Pasiouras, Fotios & Zopounidis, Constantin, 2010. "Assessing bank soundness with classification techniques," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 345-357, October.

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