Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Early warning models for bank supervision: Simpler could be better

Contents:

Author Info

  • Julapa Jagtiani
  • James Kolari
  • Catharine Lemieux
  • Hwan Shin

Abstract

Can computer-based models, using publicly available information, be used as off-site early warning systems (EWS) to identify banks that will become inadequately capitalized in the near future? The EWS models analyzed in this article are able to detect the early onset of financial distress one year in advance with a reasonable degree of accuracy. Although simple EWS models do as well as or better than more sophisticated ones, more sophisticated models could provide detailed information about individual bank strengths and weaknesses.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.chicagofed.org/digital_assets/publications/economic_perspectives/2003/3qeppart4.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its journal Economic Perspectives.

Volume (Year): (2003)
Issue (Month): Q III ()
Pages: 49-60

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhep:y:2003:i:qiii:p:49-60:n:v.27no.3

Contact details of provider:
Postal: P.O. Box 834, 230 South LaSalle Street, Chicago, Illinois 60690-0834
Phone: 312/322-5111
Fax: 312/322-5515
Email:
Web page: http://www.chicagofed.org/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Email:
Web: http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/print_publication_order_form.cfm

Related research

Keywords: Bank supervision;

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Arturo Estrella & Sangkyun Park & Stavros Peristiani, 2000. "Capital ratios as predictors of bank failure," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 33-52.
  2. Gary Whalen, 1991. "A proportional hazards model of bank failure: an examination of its usefulness as an early warning tool," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q I, pages 21-31.
  3. David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 2000. "Why do Banks Disappear? The Determinants of U.S. Bank Failures and Acquisitions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 127-138, February.
  4. John Krainer & Jose A. Lopez, 2003. "Using equity market information to monitor banking institutions," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan 24.
  5. Rebel Cole & Jeffery Gunther, 1998. "Predicting Bank Failures: A Comparison of On- and Off-Site Monitoring Systems," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 103-117, April.
  6. Kolari, James & Glennon, Dennis & Shin, Hwan & Caputo, Michele, 2002. "Predicting large US commercial bank failures," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 361-387.
  7. Rebel A. Cole & Jeffery W. Gunther, 1995. "FIMS: a new monitoring system for banking institutions," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jan, pages 1-15.
  8. R. Alton Gilbert & Andrew P. Meyer & Mark D. Vaughan, 1999. "The role of supervisory screens and econometric models in off-site surveillance," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 31-56.
  9. Jeffery W. Gunther & Robert R. Moore, 2000. "Early warning models in real time," Financial Industry Studies Working Paper 00-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Guo Li & Lee Sanning & Sherrill Shaffer, 2009. "Statistical Opacity In The U.S. Banking Industry," CAMA Working Papers 2009-16, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  2. Gerhard Hambusch & Sherrill Shaffer, 2012. "Forecasting Bank Leverage," Working Paper Series 176, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  3. Peresetsky, Anatoly A. & Karminsky, Alexandr A. & Golovan, Sergei V., 2004. "Probability of default models of Russian banks," BOFIT Discussion Papers 21/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  4. Casu, Barbara & Clare, Andrew & Saleh, Nashwa, 2011. "Towards a new model for early warning signals for systemic financial fragility and near crises: an application to OECD countries," MPRA Paper 37043, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Shaffer, Sherrill, 2007. "Equity duration and convexity when firms can fail or stagnate," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 233-241, December.
  6. Radu Muntean, 2009. "Early Warning Models for Banking Supervision in Romania," Advances in Economic and Financial Research - DOFIN Working Paper Series 39, Bucharest University of Economics, Center for Advanced Research in Finance and Banking - CARFIB.
  7. Mikhail V. Oet & Ryan Eiben & Timothy Bianco & Dieter Gramlich & Stephen J. Ong & Jing Wang, 2011. "SAFE: An early warning system for systemic banking risk," Working Paper 1129, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  8. Mehrez Ben Slama & Dhafer Saidane & Hassouna Fedhila, 2012. "How to identify targets in the M&A banking operations? Case of cross-border strategies in Europe by line of activity," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 209-240, February.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedhep:y:2003:i:qiii:p:49-60:n:v.27no.3

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Diane Rosenberger).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.