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Early warning models for bank supervision: Simpler could be better

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Author Info

  • Julapa Jagtiani
  • James Kolari
  • Catharine Lemieux
  • Hwan Shin

Abstract

Can computer-based models, using publicly available information, be used as off-site early warning systems (EWS) to identify banks that will become inadequately capitalized in the near future? The EWS models analyzed in this article are able to detect the early onset of financial distress one year in advance with a reasonable degree of accuracy. Although simple EWS models do as well as or better than more sophisticated ones, more sophisticated models could provide detailed information about individual bank strengths and weaknesses.

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File URL: http://www.chicagofed.org/digital_assets/publications/economic_perspectives/2003/3qeppart4.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its journal Economic Perspectives.

Volume (Year): (2003)
Issue (Month): Q III ()
Pages: 49-60

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhep:y:2003:i:qiii:p:49-60:n:v.27no.3

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Related research

Keywords: Bank supervision;

References

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  1. Jeffery W. Gunther & Robert R. Moore, 2000. "Early warning models in real time," Financial Industry Studies Working Paper 00-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  2. R. Alton Gilbert & Andrew P. Meyer & Mark D. Vaughan, 1999. "The role of supervisory screens and econometric models in off-site surveillance," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 31-56.
  3. Arturo Estrella & Sangkyun Park & Stavros Peristiani, 2000. "Capital ratios as predictors of bank failure," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 33-52.
  4. Rebel A. Cole & Jeffery W. Gunther, 1995. "FIMS: a new monitoring system for banking institutions," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jan, pages 1-15.
  5. Rebel Cole & Jeffery Gunther, 1998. "Predicting Bank Failures: A Comparison of On- and Off-Site Monitoring Systems," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 103-117, April.
  6. Kolari, James & Glennon, Dennis & Shin, Hwan & Caputo, Michele, 2002. "Predicting large US commercial bank failures," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 361-387.
  7. John Krainer & Jose A. Lopez, 2003. "Using equity market information to monitor banking institutions," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jan24.
  8. Gary Whalen, 1991. "A proportional hazards model of bank failure: an examination of its usefulness as an early warning tool," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q I, pages 21-31.
  9. David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 2000. "Why do Banks Disappear? The Determinants of U.S. Bank Failures and Acquisitions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 127-138, February.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Gerhard Hambusch & Sherrill Shaffer, 2012. "Forecasting Bank Leverage," Working Paper Series 176, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  2. Radu Muntean, 2009. "Early Warning Models for Banking Supervision in Romania," Advances in Economic and Financial Research - DOFIN Working Paper Series 39, Bucharest University of Economics, Center for Advanced Research in Finance and Banking - CARFIB.
  3. Guo Li & Lee Sanning & Sherrill Shaffer, 2009. "Statistical Opacity In The U.S. Banking Industry," CAMA Working Papers 2009-16, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  4. Casu, Barbara & Clare, Andrew & Saleh, Nashwa, 2011. "Towards a new model for early warning signals for systemic financial fragility and near crises: an application to OECD countries," MPRA Paper 37043, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Mikhail V. Oet & Ryan Eiben & Timothy Bianco & Dieter Gramlich & Stephen J. Ong & Jing Wang, 2011. "SAFE: An early warning system for systemic banking risk," Working Paper 1129, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  6. Peresetsky, A. A., 2011. "What factors drive the Russian banks license withdrawal," MPRA Paper 41507, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Mehrez Ben Slama & Dhafer Saidane & Hassouna Fedhila, 2012. "How to identify targets in the M&A banking operations? Case of cross-border strategies in Europe by line of activity," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 209-240, February.
  8. Peresetsky, Anatoly A. & Karminsky, Alexandr A. & Golovan, Sergei V., 2004. "Probability of default models of Russian banks," BOFIT Discussion Papers 21/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  9. Peresetsky, Anatoly, 2013. "Modeling reasons for Russian bank license withdrawal: Unaccounted factors," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 30(2), pages 49-64.
  10. Shaffer, Sherrill, 2007. "Equity duration and convexity when firms can fail or stagnate," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 233-241, December.
  11. K. Batu Tunay, 2010. "Banking Crises and Early Warning Systems: A Model Suggestion for Turkish Banking Sector," Journal of BRSA Banking and Financial Markets, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency, vol. 4(1), pages 9-46.
  12. Oet, Mikhail V. & Bianco, Timothy & Gramlich, Dieter & Ong, Stephen J., 2013. "SAFE: An early warning system for systemic banking risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4510-4533.

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