The role of supervisory screens and econometric models in off-site surveillance
AbstractOff-site surveillance involves using financial ratios to identify banks likely to develop safety-and-soundness problems. Bank supervisors use two tools to flag developing problems: supervisory screens and econometric models. Despite the statistical dominance of models, supervisors continue to rely heavily on screens. We use data from the 1980s and 1990s to compare, once again, the performance of the two approaches to off-site surveillance. Our study explicitly addresses supervisors' criticisms of econometric models. In particular, we offer a new econometric model - one designed to forecast downgrades in supervisory ratings - that is more forward-looking than existing models. As in earlier comparisons, econometric models consistently outperform supervisory screens for our sample. These results do not, however, suggest that screens should be dropped from the surveillance toolbox. When abrupt changes in the causes of bank failures and CAMEL downgrades occur, supervisors can modify their screens long before models can be revised to reflect the new conditions. We conclude that both screens and models add value in off-site surveillance, but that supervisors should rely more heavily on econometric models in the future than they have in the past.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its journal Review.
Volume (Year): (1999)
Issue (Month): Nov ()
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Mark J. Flannery, 1982. "Deposit insurance creates a need for bank regulation," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Jan/Feb, pages 17-31.
- Belongia, Michael T. & Gilbert, R. Alton, 1989. "Effects Of Management Decisions On Agricultural Bank Failures," Proceedings: 1989 Regional Committee NC-161, October 2-3, 1989, St.Louis, Missouri 127409, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
- Kevin L. Kliesen & R. Alton Gilbert, 1996. "Are some agricultural banks too agricultural?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 23-36.
- Cannella Jr., Albert A. & Fraser, Donald R. & Lee, D. Scott, 1995. "Firm failure and managerial labor markets Evidence from Texas banking," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 185-210, June.
- Ben S. Bernanke, 1994.
"The Macroeconomics of the Great Depression: A Comparative Approach,"
NBER Working Papers
4814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bernanke, Ben S, 1995. "The Macroeconomics of the Great Depression: A Comparative Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 1-28, February.
- Julapa Jagtiani & James Kolari & Catharine Lemieux & Hwan Shin, 2003. "Early warning models for bank supervision: Simpler could be better," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q III, pages 49-60.
- Douglas Evanoff & Larry Wall, 2001.
"Sub-debt Yield Spreads as Bank Risk Measures,"
Journal of Financial Services Research,
Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 121-145, October.
- John R. Hall & Thomas B. King & Andrew P. Meyer & Mark D. Vaughan, 2002. "Do jumbo-CD holders care about anything?," Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers 2002-05, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Thomas B. King & Daniel A. Nuxoll & Timothy J. Yeager, 2006. "Are the causes of bank distress changing? can researchers keep up?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 57-80.
- Kolari, James & Glennon, Dennis & Shin, Hwan & Caputo, Michele, 2002. "Predicting large US commercial bank failures," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 361-387.
- John S. Jordan & Eric S. Rosengren, 2002. "Economic cycles and bank health," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Elosegui, Pedro Luis, 2003. "Aggregate risk, credit rationing and capital accumulation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 668-696.
- Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2006.
"Equity and Bond Market Signals as Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 399-428, March.
- Reint Gropp & Jukka Vesala & Giuseppe Vulpes, 2002. "Equity and bond market signals as leading indicators of bank fragility," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2002. "Equity and bond market signals as leading indicators of bank fragility," Working Paper Series 0150, European Central Bank.
- R. Alton Gilbert & Andrew P. Meyer & Mark D. Vaughan, 2000. "The role of a CAMEL downgrade model in bank surveillance," Working Papers 2000-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- R. Alton Gilbert & Andrew P. Meyer & Mark D. Vaughan, 2002. "Could a CAMELS downgrade model improve off-site surveillance?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan., pages 47-63.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anna Xiao).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.