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Are the causes of bank distress changing? can researchers keep up?

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  • Thomas B. King
  • Daniel A. Nuxoll
  • Timothy J. Yeager
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    Abstract

    Since 1990, the banking sector has experienced enormous legislative, technological, and financial changes, yet research into the causes of bank distress has slowed. One consequence is that traditional supervisory surveillance models may not capture important risks inherent in the current banking environment. After reviewing the history of these models, the authors provide empirical evidence that the characteristics of failing banks have changed in the past ten years and argue that the time is right for new research that employs new empirical techniques. In particular, dynamic models that use forward-looking variables and address various types of bank risk individually are promising lines of inquiry. Supervisory agencies have begun to move in these directions, and the authors describe several examples of this new generation of early-warning models that are not yet widely known among academic banking economists.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its journal Review.

    Volume (Year): (2006)
    Issue (Month): Jan ()
    Pages: 57-80

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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2006:i:jan:p:57-80:n:v.88no.1

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    Keywords: Bank supervision ; Risk management;

    References

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    Cited by:
    1. Oet, Mikhail V. & Bianco, Timothy & Gramlich, Dieter & Ong, Stephen J., 2013. "SAFE: An early warning system for systemic banking risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4510-4533.
    2. Blank, Sven & Dovern, Jonas, 2009. "What macroeconomic shocks affect the German banking system? Analysis in an integrated micro-macro model," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2009,15, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    3. Cole, Rebel A. & Wu, Qiongbing, 2009. "Is hazard or probit more accurate in predicting financial distress? Evidence from U.S. bank failures," MPRA Paper 24688, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Aug 2010.
    4. De Graeve, Ferre & Kick, Thomas, 2008. "Monetary policy and bank distress: an integrated micro-macro approach," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,03, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    5. De Graeve, F. & Kick, T. & Koetter, M., 2008. "Monetary policy and financial (in)stability: An integrated micro-macro approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 205-231, September.
    6. Bos, J.W.B. & Koetter, M. & Kolari, J.W. & Kool, C.J.M., 2009. "Effects of heterogeneity on bank efficiency scores," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 195(1), pages 251-261, May.
    7. Tigran Poghosyan & Martin Cihák, 2009. "Distress in European Banks," IMF Working Papers 09/9, International Monetary Fund.

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