Predicting the Past: Understanding the Causes of Bank Distress in the Netherlands in the 1920s
AbstractWhy do some banks fail in financial crises while others survive? This paper answers this question by analysing the consequences of the Dutch financial crisis of the 1920s for 143 banks, of which 37 failed. Banks’ choices in balance sheet composition, corporate governance practices and shareholder liability regimes were found to have a significant impact on their chances of experiencing distress. Banks bore a higher probability of failing if, on the eve of the crisis, they: were highly performing; were highly leveraged; had fewer interlocking directorates with non-banks; and concentrated their managerial interlocks with highly profitable banks. Banks which chose to adopt shareholder liability regimes with unpaid capital were more likely to experience distress, but could mitigate this risk by keeping higher portions of their equity unpaid. Receiver operating characteristic analysis shows that interlock characteristics in particular have a high predictive power.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Historical Economics Society (EHES) in its series Working Papers with number 0035.
Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2013
Date of revision:
financial crises; bank failures; interlocking directorates; shareholder liability; the Netherlands; the interwar period;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
- G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
- G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance
- N24 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Europe: 1913-
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-02-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-HIS-2013-02-03 (Business, Economic & Financial History)
- NEP-RMG-2013-02-03 (Risk Management)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Richard S. Grossman & Masami Imai, 2011. "Contingent Capital and Bank Risk-Taking among British Banks before World War I," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2011-003, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
- Meyer, Paul A & Pifer, Howard W, 1970. "Prediction of Bank Failures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(4), pages 853-68, September.
- David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 2000.
"Why do Banks Disappear? The Determinants of U.S. Bank Failures and Acquisitions,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 127-138, February.
- David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 1995. "Why do banks disappear? The determinants of U.S. bank failures and acquisitions," Working Papers 1995-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Taylor, Alan M., 2012.
"External Imbalances and Financial Crises,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
9255, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Murillo Campello & John Graham & Campbell R. Harvey, 2009.
"The Real Effects of Financial Constraints: Evidence from a Financial Crisis,"
NBER Working Papers
15552, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campello, Murillo & Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 2010. "The real effects of financial constraints: Evidence from a financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 470-487, September.
- Fama, Eugene F & Jensen, Michael C, 1983. "Separation of Ownership and Control," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(2), pages 301-25, June.
- Martin, Daniel, 1977. "Early warning of bank failure : A logit regression approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 249-276, November.
- Rüdiger Fahlenbrach & René M. Stulz, 2009.
"Bank CEO Incentives and the Credit Crisis,"
NBER Working Papers
15212, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fahlenbach, Rudiger & Stulz, Rene M., 2009. "Bank CEO Incentives and the Credit Crisis," Working Paper Series 2009-13, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
- Rüdiger FAHLENBRACH & René M. STULZ, . "Bank CEO Incentives and the Credit Crisis," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 09-27, Swiss Finance Institute.
- George G. Kaufman, 1990. "Are Some Banks Too Large To Fail? Myth And Reality," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 8(4), pages 1-14, October.
- Thakor, Anjan V, 1996. " Capital Requirements, Monetary Policy, and Aggregate Bank Lending: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 279-324, March.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
- Altman, Edward I. & Haldeman, Robert G. & Narayanan, P., 1977. "ZETATM analysis A new model to identify bankruptcy risk of corporations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 29-54, June.
- Fohlin, Caroline, 1999. "Universal Banking in Pre-World War I Germany: Model or Myth?," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 305-343, October.
- Kolari, James & Glennon, Dennis & Shin, Hwan & Caputo, Michele, 2002. "Predicting large US commercial bank failures," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 361-387.
- Jonker, Joost, 1996. "Between private responsibility and public duty. The origins of bank monitoring in the Netherlands, 1860–1930," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(02), pages 139-152, October.
- Crawford, Anthony J & Ezzell, John R & Miles, James A, 1995. "Bank CEO Pay-Performance Relations and the Effects of Deregulation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(2), pages 231-56, April.
- Stephen P. Ferris & Murali Jagannathan & A. C. Pritchard, 2003. "Too Busy to Mind the Business? Monitoring by Directors with Multiple Board Appointments," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1087-1112, 06.
- Ravi Kumar, P. & Ravi, V., 2007. "Bankruptcy prediction in banks and firms via statistical and intelligent techniques - A review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 180(1), pages 1-28, July.
- Shumway, Tyler, 2001. "Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 101-24, January.
- Pettway, Richard H & Sinkey, Joseph F, Jr, 1980. " Establishing On-Site Bank Examination Priorities: An Early-Warning System Using Accounting and Market Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(1), pages 137-50, March.
- Pham, Peter K. & Kalev, Petko S. & Steen, Adam B., 2003. "Underpricing, stock allocation, ownership structure and post-listing liquidity of newly listed firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 919-947, May.
- den Bakker, Gert P & Huitker, Theo A & van Bochove, Cornelis A, 1990. "The Dutch Economy 1921-39: Revised Macroeconomic Data for the Interwar Period," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 36(2), pages 187-206, June.
- Cielen, Anja & Peeters, Ludo & Vanhoof, Koen, 2004. "Bankruptcy prediction using a data envelopment analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 154(2), pages 526-532, April.
- Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, 09.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Paul Sharp).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.