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This Time Is the Same: Using Bank Performance in 1998 to Explain Bank Performance During the Recent Financial Crisis

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  • Rüdiger FAHLENBRACH

    (EPFL and Swiss Finance Institute)

  • Robert PRILMEIER

    (The Ohio State University)

  • René M. STULZ

    (The Ohio State University, NBER and ECGI)

Abstract

We investigate whether a bank’s performance during the 1998 crisis, which was viewed at the time as the most dramatic crisis since the Great Depression, predicts its performance during the recent financial crisis. One hypothesis is that a bank that has an especially poor experience in a crisis learns and adapts, so that it performs better in the next crisis. Another hypothesis is that a bank’s poor experience in a crisis is tied to aspects of its business model that are persistent, so that its past performance during one crisis forecasts poor performance during another crisis. We show that banks that performed worse during the 1998 crisis did so as well during the recent financial crisis. This effect is economically important. In particular, it is economically as important as the leverage of banks before the start of the crisis. The result cannot be attributed to banks having the same chief executive in both crises. Banks that relied more on short-term funding, had more leverage, and grew more are more likely to be banks that performed poorly in both crises.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Swiss Finance Institute in its series Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series with number 11-19.

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Length: 51 pages
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Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1119

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Web page: http://www.SwissFinanceInstitute.ch
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Related research

Keywords: Financial crisis; systemic risk; bank returns; short-term funding; LTCM; Russian default;

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References

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  1. Ing-Haw Cheng & Harrison Hong & Jose A. Scheinkman, 2010. "Yesterday's Heroes: Compensation and Creative Risk-Taking," NBER Working Papers 16176, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Andrew Ellul & Vijay Yerramilli, 2010. "Stronger Risk Controls, Lower Risk: Evidence from U.S. Bank Holding Companies," FMG Discussion Papers dp646, Financial Markets Group.
  3. Priyank Gandhi & Hanno Lustig, 2010. "Size Anomalies in U.S. Bank Stock Returns: A Fiscal Explanation," NBER Working Papers 16553, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
  5. Acharya, Viral V & Pedersen, Lasse H & Philippon, Thomas & Richardson, Matthew P, 2012. "Measuring Systemic Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 8824, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Adrian, Tobias & Shin, Hyun Song, 2010. "Liquidity and leverage," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 418-437, July.
  7. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2009. "Money, liquidity, and monetary policy," Staff Reports 360, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  8. Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer & Robert Vishny, 2010. "Financial Innovation and Financial Fragility," Working Papers 2010.114, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  9. Marianne Bertrand & Antoinette Schoar, 2003. "Managing With Style: The Effect Of Managers On Firm Policies," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(4), pages 1169-1208, November.
  10. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2011. "Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk Taking?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(1), pages 373-416.
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Cited by:
  1. Anginer, Deniz & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Zhu, Min, 2012. "How does deposit insurance affect bank risk ? evidence from the recent crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6289, The World Bank.
  2. John Thanassoulis, 2011. "Industrial Structure, Executives' Pay And Myopic Risk Taking," Economics Series Working Papers 571, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  3. Weiß, Gregor N.F. & Bostandzic, Denefa & Neumann, Sascha, 2014. "What factors drive systemic risk during international financial crises?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 78-96.
  4. Weiß, Gregor N.F. & Neumann, Sascha & Bostandzic, Denefa, 2014. "Systemic risk and bank consolidation: International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 165-181.
  5. Berger, Allen N. & Bouwman, Christa H.S., 2013. "How does capital affect bank performance during financial crises?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 146-176.
  6. Varvara Isyuk, 2013. "Determinants of the Allocation of Funds Under the Capital Purchase Program," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 79-114, January.
  7. L. Baele & V. De Bruyckere & O. De Jonghe & R. Vander Vennet, 2012. "Do Stock Markets Discipline US Bank Holding Companies: Just Monitoring, or also In?uencing?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/827, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  8. Nicole Boyson & Rüdiger Fahlenbrach & René M. Stulz, 2014. "Why Do Banks Practice Regulatory Arbitrage? Evidence from Usage of Trust Preferred Securities," NBER Working Papers 19984, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Hoque, Hafiz, 2013. "From the credit crisis to the sovereign debt crisis: Determinants of share price performance of global banks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 334-350.
  10. Alistair Milne, 2013. "Distance to Default and the Financial Crisis," Discussion Paper Series 2013_03, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Jun 2013.

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