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This Time Is the Same: Using Bank Performance in 1998 to Explain Bank Performance During the Recent Financial Crisis

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  • Rüdiger Fahlenbrach
  • Robert Prilmeier
  • René M. Stulz

Abstract

We investigate whether a bank’s performance during the 1998 crisis, which was viewed at the time as the most dramatic crisis since the Great Depression, predicts its performance during the recent financial crisis. One hypothesis is that a bank that has an especially poor experience in a crisis learns and adapts, so that it performs better in the next crisis. Another hypothesis is that a bank’s poor experience in a crisis is tied to aspects of its business model that are persistent, so that its past performance during one crisis forecasts poor performance during another crisis. We show that banks that performed worse during the 1998 crisis did so as well during the recent financial crisis. This effect is economically important. In particular, it is economically as important as the leverage of banks before the start of the crisis. The result cannot be attributed to banks having the same chief executive in both crises. Banks that relied more on short-term funding, had more leverage, and grew more are more likely to be banks that performed poorly in both crises.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 17038.

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Date of creation: May 2011
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Publication status: published as Rüdiger Fahlenbrach & Robert Prilmeier & René M. Stulz, 2012. "This Time Is the Same: Using Bank Performance in 1998 to Explain Bank Performance during the Recent Financial Crisis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(6), pages 2139-2185, December.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17038

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  1. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2009. "Money, Liquidity, and Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 600-605, May.
  2. Viral V. Acharya & Lasse H. Pedersen & Thomas Philippon & Matthew Richardson, 2010. "Measuring systemic risk," Working Paper 1002, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  3. Bertrand, Marianne & Schoar, Antoinette, 2003. "Managing With Style: The Effect of Managers on Firm Policies," Working papers 4280-02, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  4. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2011. "Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk Taking?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(1), pages 373-416.
  5. Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer & Robert Vishny, 2010. "Financial Innovation and Financial Fragility," NBER Chapters, in: Market Institutions and Financial Market Risk National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Adrian, Tobias & Shin, Hyun Song, 2010. "Liquidity and leverage," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 418-437, July.
  7. Andrew Ellul & Vijay Yerramilli, 2010. "Stronger Risk Controls, Lower Risk: Evidence from U.S. Bank Holding Companies," FMG Discussion Papers dp646, Financial Markets Group.
  8. Priyank Gandhi & Hanno Lustig, 2010. "Size Anomalies in U.S. Bank Stock Returns: A Fiscal Explanation," NBER Working Papers 16553, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Ing-Haw Cheng & Harrison Hong & Jose Scheinkman, 2010. "Yesterday’s Heroes: Compensation and Creative Risk-Taking," NBER Chapters, in: Market Institutions and Financial Market Risk National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
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Cited by:
  1. L. Baele & V. De Bruyckere & O. De Jonghe & R. Vander Vennet, 2012. "Do Stock Markets Discipline US Bank Holding Companies: Just Monitoring, or also In?uencing?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/827, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  2. Varvara Isyuk, 2013. "Determinants of the Allocation of Funds Under the Capital Purchase Program," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 79-114, January.
  3. Milne, Alistair, 2014. "Distance to default and the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 26-36.
  4. Anginer, Deniz & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Zhu, Min, 2012. "How does deposit insurance affect bank risk ? evidence from the recent crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6289, The World Bank.
  5. Berger, Allen N. & Bouwman, Christa H.S., 2013. "How does capital affect bank performance during financial crises?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 146-176.
  6. Nicole Boyson & Rüdiger Fahlenbrach & René M. Stulz, 2014. "Why Do Banks Practice Regulatory Arbitrage? Evidence from Usage of Trust Preferred Securities," NBER Working Papers 19984, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Weiß, Gregor N.F. & Bostandzic, Denefa & Neumann, Sascha, 2014. "What factors drive systemic risk during international financial crises?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 78-96.
  8. John Thanassoulis, 2011. "Industrial Structure, Executives' Pay And Myopic Risk Taking," Economics Series Working Papers 571, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  9. Weiß, Gregor N.F. & Neumann, Sascha & Bostandzic, Denefa, 2014. "Systemic risk and bank consolidation: International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 165-181.
  10. Hoque, Hafiz, 2013. "From the credit crisis to the sovereign debt crisis: Determinants of share price performance of global banks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 334-350.

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