IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/chf/rpseri/rp1119.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

This Time Is the Same: Using Bank Performance in 1998 to Explain Bank Performance During the Recent Financial Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Rüdiger FAHLENBRACH

    (EPFL and Swiss Finance Institute)

  • Robert PRILMEIER

    (The Ohio State University)

  • René M. STULZ

    (The Ohio State University, NBER and ECGI)

Abstract

We investigate whether a bank’s performance during the 1998 crisis, which was viewed at the time as the most dramatic crisis since the Great Depression, predicts its performance during the recent financial crisis. One hypothesis is that a bank that has an especially poor experience in a crisis learns and adapts, so that it performs better in the next crisis. Another hypothesis is that a bank’s poor experience in a crisis is tied to aspects of its business model that are persistent, so that its past performance during one crisis forecasts poor performance during another crisis. We show that banks that performed worse during the 1998 crisis did so as well during the recent financial crisis. This effect is economically important. In particular, it is economically as important as the leverage of banks before the start of the crisis. The result cannot be attributed to banks having the same chief executive in both crises. Banks that relied more on short-term funding, had more leverage, and grew more are more likely to be banks that performed poorly in both crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Rüdiger FAHLENBRACH & Robert PRILMEIER & René M. STULZ, "undated". "This Time Is the Same: Using Bank Performance in 1998 to Explain Bank Performance During the Recent Financial Crisis," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 11-19, Swiss Finance Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1119
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1779406
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adrian, Tobias & Shin, Hyun Song, 2010. "Liquidity and leverage," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 418-437, July.
    2. Gary Gorton & Richard Rosen, 1995. "Banks and Derivatives," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 299-349 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ing-Haw Cheng & Harrison Hong & Jose Scheinkman, 2010. "Yesterday's Heroes: Compensation and Creative Risk-Taking," NBER Chapters,in: Market Institutions and Financial Market Risk National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Viral V. Acharya & Lasse H. Pedersen & Thomas Philippon & Matthew Richardson, 2017. "Measuring Systemic Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 2-47.
    5. Andrew Ellul & Vijay Yerramilli, 2010. "Stronger Risk Controls, Lower Risk: Evidence from U.S. Bank Holding Companies," NBER Chapters,in: Market Institutions and Financial Market Risk National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Marianne Bertrand & Antoinette Schoar, 2003. "Managing with Style: The Effect of Managers on Firm Policies," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(4), pages 1169-1208.
    7. Priyank Gandhi & Hanno Lustig, 2010. "Size Anomalies in U.S. Bank Stock Returns: A Fiscal Explanation," NBER Working Papers 16553, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2009. "Money, Liquidity, and Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 600-605, May.
    9. Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer & Robert Vishny, 2010. "Financial Innovation and Financial Fragility," NBER Chapters,in: Market Institutions and Financial Market Risk National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
    11. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2011. "Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk Taking?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(1), pages 373-416.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crisis; systemic risk; bank returns; short-term funding; LTCM; Russian default;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1119. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marilyn Barja). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/chfeech.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.