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Realized Bank Risk during the Great Recession

Author

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  • Yener Altunbas
  • Simone Manganelli
  • David Marques-Ibanez

Abstract

In the years preceding the 2007-2009 financial crisis, forward-looking indicators of bank risk concentrated and suggested unusually low expectations of bank default. We assess whether the ex-ante (i.e. prior to the crisis) cross-sectional variability in bank characteristics is related to the ex-post (i.e. during the crisis) materialization of bank risk. Our tailor-made dataset crucially accounts for the different dimensions of realized bank risk including access to central bank liquidity during the crisis. We consistently find that less reliance on deposit funding, more aggressive credit growth, larger size and leverage were associated with larger levels of realized risk. The impact of these characteristics is particularly relevant for capturing the systemic dimensions of bank risk and tends to become stronger for the tail of the riskier banks. The majority of these characteristics also predicted bank risk as materialized before the financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Yener Altunbas & Simone Manganelli & David Marques-Ibanez, 2015. "Realized Bank Risk during the Great Recession," International Finance Discussion Papers 1140, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1140
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2015.1140r
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    Cited by:

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    3. Elona Dushku & Antje Hildebrandt & Erjona Suljoti, 2019. "The impact of housing markets on banks’ risk-taking behavior: evidence from CESEE," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q3/19, pages 55-75.
    4. Sclip, Alex & Girardone, Claudia & Miani, Stefano, 2019. "Large EU banks’ capital and liquidity: Relationship and impact on credit default swap spreads," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 438-461.
    5. Saqib Aziz & Michael Dowling & Jean-Jacques Lilti, 2016. "Bank Acquisitiveness and Financial Crisis Vulnerability," Post-Print hal-01393953, HAL.
    6. Caterina Di Tommaso & John Thornton, 2020. "Do ESG scores effect bank risk taking and value? Evidence from European banks," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(5), pages 2286-2298, September.
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    10. Ashraf, Badar Nadeem & Zheng, Changjun & Jiang, Chonghui & Qian, Ningyu, 2020. "Capital regulation, deposit insurance and bank risk: International evidence from normal and crisis periods," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank risk; business models; Great Recession;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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