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The great leveraging

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  • Alan M. Taylor

Abstract

What can history can tell us about the relationship between the banking system, financial crises, the global economy, and economic performance? Evidence shows that in the advanced economies we live in a world that is more financialized than ever before as measured by importance of credit in the economy. I term this long-run evolution "The Great Leveraging" and present a ten-point examination of its main contours and implications.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 398.

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Length: 52 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:398

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Keywords: financial development; credit; booms; crises; recessions; global imbalances; Great Recession; fiscal policy;

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References

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  1. Jordà, Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2011. "When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles, and Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 8678, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1, October.
  3. Miguel Almunia & Agustín S. Bénétrix & Barry Eichengreen & Kevin H. O'Rourke & Gisela Rua, 2009. "From Great Depression to Great Credit Crisis: Similarities, Differences and Lessons," NBER Working Papers 15524, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2009. "Financial Instability, Reserves, and Central Bank Swap Lines in the Panic of 2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 480-86, May.
  5. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Vegh, Carlos A. & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2013. "On graduation from fiscal procyclicality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 32-47.
  6. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. �scar Jord� & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2011. "Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 59(2), pages 340-378, June.
  8. Rajan, Raghuram G & Zingales, Luigi, 1998. "Financial Dependence and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 559-86, June.
  9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
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Cited by:
  1. Didier Sornette & Peter Cauwels, 2014. "1980–2008: The Illusion of the Perpetual Money Machine and What It Bodes for the Future," Risks, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(2), pages 103-131, April.
  2. Afanasyeva, Elena, 2012. "Atypical Behavior of Money and Credit: Evidence From Conditional Forecasts," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 65405, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  3. Reinout De Bock & Irineu E. Carvalho Filho, 2013. "The Behavior of Currencies during Risk-off Episodes," IMF Working Papers 13/8, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Niels Gilbert & Jeroen Hessel & Silvie Verkaart, 2013. "Towards a Stable Monetary Union: What Role for Eurobonds?," DNB Working Papers 379, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  5. Dominik Bernhofer & Octavio Fernández-Amador & Martin Gächter & Friedrich Sindermann, 2014. "Finance, Potential Output and the Business Cycle: Empirical Evidence from Selected Advanced and CESEE Economies," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 52-75.
  6. Colvin, Christopher L. & de Jong, Abe & Fliers, Philip T., 2014. "Predicting the past: Understanding the causes of bank distress in the Netherlands in the 1920s," QUCEH Working Paper Series 14-04, Queen's University Centre for Economic History, Queen's University Belfast.
  7. Christopher M. Meissner, 2013. "Capital Flows, Credit Booms, and Financial Crises in the Classical Gold Standard Era," NBER Working Papers 18814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Franziska Bremus & Claudia M. Buch, 2013. "Granularity in Banking and Growth: Does Financial Openness Matter?," CESifo Working Paper Series 4356, CESifo Group Munich.

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