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The United Kingdom's small banks' crisis of the early 1990s: what were the leading indicators of failure?

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Andrew Logan
Abstract

The announcement of BCCI's closure on 5 July 1991 rapidly accelerated the withdrawal of wholesale funds from small and medium-sized UK banks. Within three years, a quarter of the banks in this sector had, in some sense, failed. This study employs a logit model to analyse at two points prior to the crisis the distinct characteristics of the banks that failed compared with those that survived. Perhaps not surprisingly, a number of measures of bank weakness - low loan growth, poor profitability and illiquidity - are found to be good short-term predictors of failure, as are a high dependence on net interest income and low leverage. The best longer-term leading indicator of future failure, however, is rapid loan growth at the peak of the previous boom.

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Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 139.

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Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:139

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  7. Cole, Rebel A. & Gunther, Jeffery W., 1995. "Separating the likelihood and timing of bank failure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1073-1089, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Robert B. Avery & Gerald A. Hanweck, 1984. "A dynamic analysis of bank failures," Research Papers in Banking and Financial Economics 74, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  11. Meyer, Paul A & Pifer, Howard W, 1970. "Prediction of Bank Failures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(4), pages 853-68, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Flannery, Mark J, 1998. "Using Market Information in Prudential Bank Supervision: A Review of the U.S. Empirical Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 273-305, August.
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