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Are Bank Ratings Coherent with Bank Default Probabilities in Emerging Market Economies ?

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  • Christophe Godlewski

    (LaRGE, Institut d'Etudes Politiques, Université Robert Schuman, Strasbourg 3)

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the coherence between bank ratings and default probability in emerging market economies using scoring and mapping techniques. In order to achieve its disciplining role, the rating should be coherent with the default risk it summarizes and disseminate. This issue is particularly crucial in emerging economies where under-developed financial markets, banking sector accrued opacity, and inadequate regulatory, institutional and legal environment affect banker’s risk taking behavior and bank’s default risk. Scoring results show a correct quantification of agency rating grades and thus their coherence. Mapping results show a tendency of the rating to aggregate bank’s default risk information into intermediate low category grades.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 0409023.

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Date of creation: 08 Sep 2004
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0409023

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Keywords: emerging market economies; default probability; bank rating; scoring and mapping methods;

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  1. Kaplan, Robert S & Urwitz, Gabriel, 1979. "Statistical Models of Bond Ratings: A Methodological Inquiry," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 52(2), pages 231-61, April.
  2. André Güttler & Walter Kraemer, 2008. "On Comparing the Accuracy of Default Predictions in the Rating Industry," CESifo Working Paper Series 2202, CESifo Group Munich.
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  6. Rojas-Suarez, Liliana, 2002. "Can international capital standards strengthen banks in emerging markets?," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 5, pages 51-63.
  7. Poon, Winnie P. H. & Firth, Michael & Fung, Hung-Gay, 1999. "A multivariate analysis of the determinants of Moody's bank financial strength ratings," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 267-283, August.
  8. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, 1989. "Deposit-institution failures: a review of empirical literature," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q IV, pages 2-18.
  9. Patrick Honohan, 1997. "Banking system failures in developing and transition countries: Diagnosis and predictions," BIS Working Papers 39, Bank for International Settlements.
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Cited by:
  1. Peresetsky, Anatoly A. & Karminsky, Alexandr A. & Golovan, Sergei V., 2004. "Probability of default models of Russian banks," BOFIT Discussion Papers 21/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.

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