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Are Bank Ratings Coherent with Bank Default Probabilities in Emerging Market Economies ?

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  • Christophe Godlewski

    (LaRGE, Institut d'Etudes Politiques, Université Robert Schuman, Strasbourg 3)

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the coherence between bank ratings and default probability in emerging market economies using scoring and mapping techniques. In order to achieve its disciplining role, the rating should be coherent with the default risk it summarizes and disseminate. This issue is particularly crucial in emerging economies where under-developed financial markets, banking sector accrued opacity, and inadequate regulatory, institutional and legal environment affect banker’s risk taking behavior and bank’s default risk. Scoring results show a correct quantification of agency rating grades and thus their coherence. Mapping results show a tendency of the rating to aggregate bank’s default risk information into intermediate low category grades.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 0409023.

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Date of creation: 08 Sep 2004
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0409023

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Related research

Keywords: emerging market economies; default probability; bank rating; scoring and mapping methods;

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References

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  1. Prof. Dr. Walter Krämer & Andre Güttler, . "On comparing the accuracy of default predictions in the rating industry," Working Papers 2, Business and Social Statistics Department, Technische Universität Dortmund, revised Oct 2006.
  2. Hand, John R M & Holthausen, Robert W & Leftwich, Richard W, 1992. " The Effect of Bond Rating Agency Announcements on Bond and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 733-52, June.
  3. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, 1989. "Deposit-institution failures: a review of empirical literature," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q IV, pages 2-18.
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  6. Krämer, Walter & Güttler, André, 2003. "Comparing the accuracy of default predictions in the rating industry: The case of Moody's vs. S&P," Technical Reports 2003,23, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
  7. Rojas-Suarez, Liliana, 2002. "Can international capital standards strengthen banks in emerging markets?," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 5, pages 51-63.
  8. Kaplan, Robert S & Urwitz, Gabriel, 1979. "Statistical Models of Bond Ratings: A Methodological Inquiry," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 52(2), pages 231-61, April.
  9. Shin, Yoon S. & Moore, William T., 2003. "Explaining credit rating differences between Japanese and U.S. agencies," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 327-344.
  10. Patrick Honohan, 1997. "Banking system failures in developing and transition countries: Diagnosis and predictions," BIS Working Papers 39, Bank for International Settlements.
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Cited by:
  1. Peresetsky, Anatoly A. & Karminsky, Alexandr A. & Golovan, Sergei V., 2004. "Probability of default models of Russian banks," BOFIT Discussion Papers 21/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.

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