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A VECM evaluation of monetary transmission in Uzbekistan

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  • Frank Hespeler

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Abstract

This paper presents a VAR/VECM analysis of the monetary transmission process in Uzbekistan for the available data from 2000 to 2009. The general findings obtained support the hypothesis that the interest rate channel in Uzbekistan is relatively weak. Monetary transmission via the exchange rate channel seems to be stronger, even if the form of the channel remains quite ambiguous or rather chaotic. Partially this chaos can be blamed on the contradiction between existing restrictions on capital mobility and the dual objectives of a development of the financial sector and provision of macroeconomic stability. On an analytical level this paper suggests the use of a specific methodology for the future evaluation of monetary policy in Uzbekistan. This is especially important, because in future improved and/or more extensive data might alter some of the results obtained so far. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10644-012-9125-4
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Economic Change and Restructuring.

Volume (Year): 46 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 219-253

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Handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:46:y:2013:i:2:p:219-253

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=113294

Related research

Keywords: Monetary transmission; Monetary policy; VAR/VECM models; Transition country;

References

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  1. Asel Isaková, 2008. "Monetary Policy Efficiency in the Economies of Central Asia," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(11-12), pages 525-553, December.
  2. Starr, Martha A., 2005. "Does money matter in the CIS? Effects of monetary policy on output and prices," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 441-461, September.
  3. repec:diw:diwfin:diwfin05060 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Balazs Egert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Transition Economies: Surveying the Surveyable," CESifo Working Paper Series 1739, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Svetlana Vtyurina & Fahad Alturki, 2010. "Inflation in Tajikistan," IMF Working Papers 10/17, International Monetary Fund.
  6. H. Peter Boswijk & Jurgen A. Doornik, 1999. "Distribution Approximations for Cointegration Tests with Stationary Exogenous Regressors," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 99-013/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  7. Nikolic, Milan, 2000. "Money Growth-Inflation Relationship in Postcommunist Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 108-133, March.
  8. Alexandr Akimov & Brian Dollery, 2009. "The Uzbek Approach to Financial System Development: An Analysis of Achievements and Failures," Discussion Papers in Finance finance:200905, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
  9. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
  10. repec:dgr:uvatin:2099013 is not listed on IDEAS
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