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The Futures Premium and Rice Market Efficiency in Prewar Japan

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  • Mikio Ito
  • Kiyotaka Maeda
  • Akihiko Noda

Abstract

This paper studies the interrelation between spot and futures prices in the two major rice markets in prewar Japan from the perspective of market efficiency. Applying a non-Bayesian time-varying model approach to the fundamental equation for spot returns and the futures premium, we detect when efficiency reductions in the two major rice markets occurred. We also examine how government interventions affected the rice markets in Japan, which colonized Taiwan and Korea before World War II, and argue that the function of rice futures markets crucially depended on the differences in rice spot market's structure. The increased volume of imported rice of a different variety from domestic rice first disrupted the rice futures. Then, government intervention in the rice futures markets failed to improve the disruption. Changes in colonial rice cropping successfully improved the disruption, and colonial rice was promoted to unify the different varieties of inland and colonial rice.

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  • Mikio Ito & Kiyotaka Maeda & Akihiko Noda, 2014. "The Futures Premium and Rice Market Efficiency in Prewar Japan," Papers 1404.5381, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2017.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1404.5381
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    1. Ito, Mikio & Maeda, Kiyotaka & Noda, Akihiko, 2016. "Market efficiency and government interventions in prewar Japanese rice futures markets," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(3), pages 325-346, December.
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    9. Mikio Ito & Akihiko Noda & Tatsuma Wada, 2016. "The evolution of stock market efficiency in the US: a non-Bayesian time-varying model approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(7), pages 621-635, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yutaka Arimoto & Yoshihiro Sakane, 2021. "Agricultural development in industrialising Japan, 1880–1940," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(3), pages 290-317, November.
    2. Oscar V. De la Torre-Torres & Evaristo Galeana-Figueroa & José Álvarez-García, 2021. "A Markov-Switching VSTOXX Trading Algorithm for Enhancing EUR Stock Portfolio Performance," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-28, May.
    3. Mikio Ito & Kiyotaka Maeda & Akihiko Noda, 2017. "Discretion versus Policy Rules in Futures Markets: A Case of the Osaka-Dojima Rice Exchange, 1914-1939," Papers 1704.00985, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2018.
    4. Akihiko Noda, 2022. "Estimating the Time-Varying Structures of the Fama-French Multi-Factor Models," Papers 2208.01270, arXiv.org.
    5. Mikio Ito & Kiyotaka Maeda & Akihiko Noda, 2016. "Market Integration in the Prewar Japanese Rice Markets," Papers 1604.00148, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2017.

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