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The Hockey Stick Phillips Curve and the Zero Lower Bound

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  • Gregor Boehl
  • Philipp Lieberknecht

Abstract

The recently observed disconnect between in ation and economic activity can be ex- plained by the interplay between the zero lower bound (ZLB) and the costs of external financing. In normal times, credit spreads and the nominal interest rate balance out; factor costs dominate firms' marginal costs. When nominal rates are constrained, larger spreads can more than offset the effect of lower factor costs and induce only moderate in ation responses. The Phillips curve is hence at at the ZLB, but features a posi- tive slope in normal times and thus a hockey stick shape. Via this mechanism, forward guidance may induce de ationary effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregor Boehl & Philipp Lieberknecht, 2021. "The Hockey Stick Phillips Curve and the Zero Lower Bound," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2021_266, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2021_266
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    Cited by:

    1. Gregor Boehl & Gavin Goy & Felix Strobel, 2020. "A Structural Investigation of Quantitative Easing," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_193, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    2. Andrejs Zlobins, 2021. "On the Time-varying Effects of the ECB's Asset Purchases," Working Papers 2021/02, Latvijas Banka.
    3. Boehl, Gregor, 2022. "Efficient solution and computation of models with occasionally binding constraints," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Phillips Curve; Financial Frictions; Zero Lower Bound; Disin ation; Forward Guidance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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