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Désinflation et chômage dans la zone euro: une analyse à l'aide d'un modèle VAR structurel

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  • Fève, Patrick
  • Matheron, Julien
  • Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume

Abstract

Cet article étudie les effets dynamiques des chocs de désinflation sur un ensemble de variables réelles et nominales de la zone Euro. A l’aide d’un modèle VAR structurel, nous identifions le choc de désinflation comme étant le seul choc ayant un effet permanent sur l’inflation à long terme ainsi que sur les variables nominales qui cointégrent avec elle. Nous montrons que ce choc a des effets récessionnistes importants, notamment sur l’investissement, et provoque une hausse persistante du taux de chômage et du taux d’intérêt réel. Nous complétons cette analyse en calculant des mesures d’inefficience sur les marchés des biens et du travail et nous montrons que ce sont principalement ces dernières qui ont prévalues. Ces conclusions sont robustes à différentes mesures et schémas d’identification des chocs de désinflation.

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Paper provided by Toulouse School of Economics (TSE) in its series TSE Working Papers with number 09-014.

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Date of creation: Feb 2009
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Publication status: Published in Annales d'Économie et de Statistique, vol.�99, Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques, Paris, 2010, révision 2009, p.�365-394.
Handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:22268

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  1. Antulio N. Bomfim & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1997. "Opportunistic and deliberate disinflation under imperfect credibility," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 97-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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