IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prs/reveco/reco_0035-2764_1986_num_37_6_408958.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

La désinflation en France : le point de vue de l'économètre

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-Pierre Cling
  • François Meunier

Abstract

[eng] The french disinflation. . What are the factors of the french desinflation between 1981 and 1985, following the 1981 peak due to the second oil shock ?. The use of an econometric model based on the wage-price spiral provides an answer : by measuring the contribution of the exogenous factors to the price slowdown ; also by analysing the difference between the observed evolutions and the simulated ones which take into account the past behavourial relationships. One can notice an important effect of the new wage indexation implemented after the wageprice freeze in 1982 and a smaller influence of the price control policy. The slowdown of the imported. inflation (particidarly the fall in oil prices since 1983) accounts for half of the disinflation during the period. Other factors (farm prices, unemployment) had also an influence not to be neglected. [fre] La désinflation francaise. . Quels sont les facteurs de la désinflation française entre 1981 et 1985, après le pic de 1981 consécutif au deuxième choc pétrolier ? L'utilisation d'une maquette économétrique basée sur la boucle prix-salaires permet de répondre à cette question : en chiffrant la contribution des variables exogènes au ralentissement des prix, mais aussi en analysant les écarts entre les évolutions observées, et les évolutions simulées qui reprennent les comportements moyens observés sur le passé. On observe ainsi un effet important du nouveau mode d'indexation salariale mis en œuvre après le blocage clés prix et des revenus de 1982 et un rôle plus modeste de la politique des prix. Le ralentissement des prix importés (notamment la baisse du prix du pétrole, dès 1983) explique, d'autre part, la moitié de la désinflation au cours de la période ; enfin, d'autres facteurs explicatifs (prix agricoles, chômage) jouent aussi un rôle non négligeable.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Pierre Cling & François Meunier, 1986. "La désinflation en France : le point de vue de l'économètre," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 37(6), pages 1093-1125.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1986_num_37_6_408958
    DOI: 10.3406/reco.1986.408958
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1986.408958
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3406/reco.1986.408958
    Download Restriction: Data and metadata provided by Persée are licensed under a Creative Commons "Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0" License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/
    File URL: https://www.persee.fr/doc/reco_0035-2764_1986_num_37_6_408958
    Download Restriction: Data and metadata provided by Persée are licensed under a Creative Commons "Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0" License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3406/reco.1986.408958?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ross, Stephen A & Wachter, Michael L, 1973. "Wage Determination, Inflation, and the Industrial Structure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(4), pages 675-692, September.
    2. Pierre Morin & Jean-François Loué, 1986. "La boucle prix-salaires des modèles de l'économie française : structure et robustesse," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 37(6), pages 1067-1092.
    3. D. E. W. Laidler & J. M. Parkin, 1977. "Inflation: A Survey," Palgrave Macmillan Books,, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Gordon, Robert J, 1981. "Output Fluctuations and Gradual Price Adjustment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 19(2), pages 493-530, June.
    5. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December.
    6. Willem H. Buiter & Marcus Miller, 1983. "Changing the Rules: Economic Consequences of the Thatcher Regime," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 14(2), pages 305-380.
    7. Henri Sterdyniak & Michèle Debonneuil, 1984. "La boucle prix-salaires dans l'inflation," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 35(2), pages 267-312.
    8. Christopher A. Sims, 1982. "Policy Analysis with Econometric Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 13(1), pages 107-164.
    9. Mathieu Féroldi & François Meunier, 1984. "Une maquette d'étude de la boucle prix-salaires," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 169(1), pages 31-43.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Feve & Julien Matheron & Guillaume Sahuc, 2010. "Désinflation et chômage dans la zone euro : une analyse à l'aide d'un modèle var structurel," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 99-100, pages 365-394.
    2. Pierre Poret, 1990. "Les salaires dans les grands pays de l'OCDE au cours des années quatre-vingt," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 235(1), pages 3-15.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Henri Sterdyniak & Michèle Debonneuil, 1984. "La boucle prix-salaires dans l'inflation," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 35(2), pages 267-312.
    2. Barthélemy, Jean & Marx, Magali, 2017. "Solving endogenous regime switching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 1-25.
    3. Leeper, Eric M. & Zha, Tao, 2003. "Modest policy interventions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1673-1700, November.
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5221 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Heymann, Daniel, 1986. "Inflation and stabilization policies," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    6. Kevin D. Hoover & Òscar Jordà, 2001. "Measuring systematic monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(Jul), pages 113-144.
    7. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/644vfdaim38frrvbit4u0bh0ha is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Blinder, Alan S, 1991. "Why Are Prices Sticky? Preliminary Results from an Interview Study," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 89-96, May.
    9. Bruno Ducoudre, 2008. "Structure par terme des taux d’intérêt et anticipations de la politique économique," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5221, Sciences Po.
    10. Nitzan, Jonathan, 1992. "Inflation As Restructuring. A Theoretical and Empirical Account of the U.S. Experience," EconStor Theses, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, number 157989, July.
    11. Gangopadhyay, Partha & Gangopadhyay, Renu, 2008. "Flexible reservation prices and price inflexibility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 499-511, May.
    12. Raymond Board & Peter A. Tinsley, 1996. "Smart systems and simple agents: industry pricing by parallel rules," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1996-50, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Eilev S. Jansen, 2004. "Modelling inflation in the Euro Area," Working Paper 2004/10, Norges Bank.
    14. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Engel, Eduardo M. R. A., 1993. "Microeconomic rigidities and aggregate price dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 697-711, May.
    15. Haubrich, Joseph G & King, Robert G, 1991. "Sticky Prices, Money, and Business Fluctuations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 243-259, May.
    16. Kevin D. Hoover & Òscar Jordà, 2001. "Measuring systematic monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 113-144.
    17. Jean Barthélemy & Magali Marx, 2016. "Solving Endogenous Regime Switching Models," SciencePo Working papers hal-03393181, HAL.
    18. Dexter, Albert S. & Levi, Maurice D. & Nault, Barrie R., 2002. "Sticky prices: the impact of regulation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 797-821, May.
    19. Taylor, John B., 1999. "Staggered price and wage setting in macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 1009-1050, Elsevier.
    20. Chalfant, James A. & Love, H. Alan & Rausser, Gordon C. & Stamoulis, Kostas G., 1986. "The effects of monetary policy on U.S. agriculture," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt1rn3z1wd, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    21. Ian M. McDonald, 1984. "Trying to Understand Stagflation," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 17(3), pages 32-56, November.
    22. Ha,Jongrim & Ivanova,Anna & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Unsal Portillo Ocando,Derya Filiz, 2019. "Inflation : Concepts, Evolution, and Correlates," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8738, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1986_num_37_6_408958. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Equipe PERSEE (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.persee.fr/collection/reco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.