Modelling Short-run Money Demand for the USA
AbstractNowadays, modelling long-term money demand is largely unambiguous. There is a vast amount of empirical evidence concerning a cointegrating relationship between money demand, some kind of interest rate and income. In contrast to this, short-run dynamics are still opaque. In the existing literature, the return to steady state is modelled quite differently. Simple error correction models have failed in some cases to explain short-run dynamics adequately. Partial-adjustment models allow for a smooth return to equilibrium as costs for adjusting real money balances lead to a sticky behaviour of actual money. Other authors model the return to steady state in a non-linear error correction form, instead. All these models consider disequilibria by the gap between money demand and its steady state of only the last period, disregarding disequilibria in periods before. Ignoring deviations from steady state occurred further in the past miss to account for money stockpiling activities of economic agents. I use a model where weights for cumulating are geometrically decreasing the more they are located in the past. According to Koyck (1954) such models possess an ARMA (1,1) representation. The combination of the Koyck-model with the error correction approach leads to an ARMAX model which is shown to be capable in some cases to track money demand short-run dynamics better and more parsimony than partial-adjustment models.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by WIFO in its series WIFO Working Papers with number 442.
Length: 14 pages
Date of creation: 19 Dec 2012
Date of revision:
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Calza, Alessandro & Zaghini, Andrea, 2006. "Non-linear dynamics in the euro area demand for M1," Working Paper Series 0592, European Central Bank.
- Engsted, Tom & Gonzalo, Jesus & Haldrup, Niels, 1997. "Testing for multicointegration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 259-266, November.
- Scheiblecker, Marcus, 2013.
"Between cointegration and multicointegration: Modelling time series dynamics by cumulative error correction models,"
Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 511-517.
- Marcus Scheiblecker, 2012. "Between Cointegration and Multicointegration. Modelling Time Series Dynamics by Cumulative Error Correction Models," WIFO Working Papers 431, WIFO.
- Dennis Hoffman & Robert H. Rasche, 1989.
"Long-run Income and Interest Elasticities of Money Demand in the United States,"
NBER Working Papers
2949, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hoffman, Dennis L & Rasche, Robert H, 1991. "Long-Run Income and Interest Elasticities of Money Demand in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(4), pages 665-74, November.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993.
"A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems,"
Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
- Tom Doan, . "SWDOLS: RATS procedure to estimate cointegrating vectors using dynamic OLS," Statistical Software Components RTS00207, Boston College Department of Economics.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Laidler, David, 1984. "The 'Buffer Stock' Notion in Monetary Economics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(376a), pages 17-34, Supplemen.
- Lee, Tae-Hwy, 1992. "Stock-Flow Relationships in U.S. Housing Construction," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 419-30, August.
- Johansen, Soren, 2006. "Statistical analysis of hypotheses on the cointegrating relations in the I(2) model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 81-115, May.
- Dreger, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2010. "Investigating M3 money demand in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 111-122, February.
- Duca, John V, 2000. "Financial Technology Shocks and the Case of the Missing M2," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 820-39, November.
- Laurence Ball, 2002.
"Short-Run Money Demand,"
NBER Working Papers
9235, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Franses, Philip Hans & van Oest, Rutger, 2007. "On the econometrics of the geometric lag model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 291-296, May.
- Stephen M. Goldfeld, 1973. "The Demand for Money Revisited," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(3), pages 577-646.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ilse Schulz).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.