Forecasting Nevada Gross Gaming Revenue and Taxable Sales Using Coincident and Leading Employment Indexes
Abstract
This paper provides out-of-sample forecasts of Nevada gross gaming revenue and taxable sales using a battery of linear and non-linear forecasting models and univariate and multivariate techniques. The linear models include vector autoregressive and vector error-correction models with and without Bayesian priors. The non-linear models include non-parametric and semi-parametric models, smooth transition autoregressive models and artificial neural network autoregressive models. In addition to gross gaming revenue and taxable sales, we employ recently constructed coincident and leading employment indexes for Nevada's economy. We conclude that non-linear models generally outperform linear models in forecasting future movements in gross gaming revenue and taxable sales.Download Info
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Paper provided by University of Connecticut, Department of Economics in its series Working papers with number 2010-21.Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2010
Date of revision:
Publication status: Forthcoming in Empirical Economics
Handle: RePEc:uct:uconnp:2010-21
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Postal: University of Connecticut 341 Mansfield Road, Unit 1063 Storrs, CT 06269-1063
Phone: (860) 486-4889
Fax: (860) 486-4463
Web page: http://www.econ.uconn.edu/
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Related research
Keywords: Forecasting; Linear and non-linear models; Nevada gross gaming revenue; Nevada taxable sales;Other versions of this item:
- Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen Miller, 2013. "Forecasting Nevada gross gaming revenue and taxable sales using coincident and leading employment indexes," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 387-417, April.
- Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2011. "Forecasting Nevada Gross Gaming Revenue and Taxable Sales Using Coincident and Leading Employment Indexes," Working Papers 1103, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
- Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2010. "Forecasting Nevada Gross Gaming Revenue and Taxable Sales Using Coincident and Leading Employment Indexes," Working Papers 201018, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-08-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2010-08-14 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2010-08-14 (Forecasting)
References
References listed on IDEASPlease report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- De Gooijer, Jan G. & Vidiella-i-Anguera, Antoni, 2004. "Forecasting threshold cointegrated systems," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 237-253.
- Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002.
"Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments,"
Econometric Reviews,
Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
- Dijk, D.J.C. van & Terasvirta, T. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2000. "Smooth transition autoregressive models - A survey of recent developments," Econometric Institute Report EI 2000-23/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute.
- van Dijk, Dick & Teräsvirta, Timo & Franses, Philip Hans, 2000. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models - A Survey of Recent Developments," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 380, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 17 Jan 2001.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2012.
"Was the Recent Downturn in US GDP Predictable?,"
Working Papers
1210, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
- Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "Was the Recent Downturn in US GDP Predictable?," Working papers 2012-38, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
- Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "Was the Recent Downturn in US GDP Predictable?," Working Papers 201230, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
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