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Forecasting Nevada Gross Gaming Revenue and Taxable Sales Using Coincident and Leading Employment Indexes

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Author Info

  • Mehmet Balcilar

    (Eastern Mediterranean University)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (University of Pretoria)

  • Anandamayee Majumdar

    (Arizona State University)

  • Stephen M. Miller

    (University of Connecticut and University of Nevada, Las Vegas)

Abstract

This paper provides out-of-sample forecasts of Nevada gross gaming revenue and taxable sales using a battery of linear and non-linear forecasting models and univariate and multivariate techniques. The linear models include vector autoregressive and vector error-correction models with and without Bayesian priors. The non-linear models include non-parametric and semi-parametric models, smooth transition autoregressive models and artificial neural network autoregressive models. In addition to gross gaming revenue and taxable sales, we employ recently constructed coincident and leading employment indexes for Nevada's economy. We conclude that non-linear models generally outperform linear models in forecasting future movements in gross gaming revenue and taxable sales.

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File URL: http://www.econ.uconn.edu/working/2010-21.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Connecticut, Department of Economics in its series Working papers with number 2010-21.

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Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2010
Date of revision:
Publication status: Forthcoming in Empirical Economics
Handle: RePEc:uct:uconnp:2010-21

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Postal: University of Connecticut 341 Mansfield Road, Unit 1063 Storrs, CT 06269-1063
Phone: (860) 486-4889
Fax: (860) 486-4463
Web page: http://www.econ.uconn.edu/
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Keywords: Forecasting; Linear and non-linear models; Nevada gross gaming revenue; Nevada taxable sales;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "Was the Recent Downturn in US GDP Predictable?," Working papers 2012-38, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2013.

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