Launching the NEUQ: The New European Union Quarterly Model, A Small Model of the Euro Area and U.K. Economies
AbstractThe authors develop a projection model of the euro area and the United Kingdom. The model consists of two country blocks, endogenous to each other via the foreign demand channel. Each country block features an aggregate IS curve, a forward-looking Phillips curve, and an estimated forward-looking monetary policy reaction function. Potential output is estimated by means of a Hodrick-Prescott filter, conditioned by an equilibrium path generated by a structural vector autoregression (Rennison 2003 and Gosselin and Lalonde 2002). The Phillips curve is specified in terms of the output gap, and inflation dynamics are described by the polynomial adjustment cost (PAC) approach, as in Kozicki and Tinsley (2002). The model delivers relatively accurate projections at a variety of forecast horizons and provides a useful tool for policy analysis. The authors' simulation results suggest that output and inflation exhibit a greater degree of persistence to shocks in the euro area than in the United Kingdom.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 06-22.
Length: 53 pages
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
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Economic models; Business fluctuations and cycles;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-07-09 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2006-07-09 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2006-07-09 (European Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2006-07-09 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2006-07-09 (Macroeconomics)
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