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The monetary policy innovation paradox in VARs: a "discrete" explanation

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  • Michael J. Dueker

Abstract

Monetary policy shocks derived from VARs often suggest that monetary policymakers regularly react to an unexpected increase that they induced in the federal funds rate with additional increases. This puzzling pattern can be called the “policy innovation paradox” because there is no obvious explanation for such a pattern. This article shows that the policy innovation paradox is most likely an artifact of failing to account for the discreteness of changes that policymakers make to the target federal funds rate. Mis-specified VARs that fail to account for discrete target changes imply the policy innovation paradox, whereas a model that uses information from discrete policy changes does not.

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File URL: http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/02/03/43-50Dueker.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its journal Review.

Volume (Year): (2002)
Issue (Month): Mar. ()
Pages: 43-50

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2002:i:mar.:p:43-50:n:v.84no.2

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Keywords: Monetary policy ; Federal funds rate ; Vector autoregression;

References

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  1. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1997. "Monetary policy shocks: what have we learned and to what end?," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  2. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
  4. Dean Croushore & Charles L. Evans, 2000. "Data revisions and the identification of monetary policy shocks," Working Paper Series WP-00-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  5. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1.
  6. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Magginas, Nicholas S., 2006. "Forward-looking information in VAR models and the price puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 1225-1234, September.
  2. Michael J. Dueker & Robert H. Rasche, 2004. "Discrete policy changes and empirical models of the federal funds rate," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 61-72.
  3. Anatoliy Belaygorod & Michael J. Dueker, 2005. "Discrete monetary policy changes and changing inflation targets in estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 719-34.

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