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Rational bubbles in emerging stockmarkets

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  • Nunes, Mauricio
  • Da Silva, Sergio

Abstract

We detected rational bubbles in 22 emerging stockmarkets using both standard and threshold cointegration. Eighteen stockmarkets experienced explosive bubbles (and some of them periodically collapsing bubbles as well). The remaining four markets experienced periodically collapsing bubbles only.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 4641.

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Date of creation: 29 Aug 2007
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:4641

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Keywords: bubbles; stockmarkets; emerging markets;

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  1. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-30, March.
  2. Jack Selody & Carolyn Wilkins, 2004. "Asset Prices and Monetary Policy: A Canadian Perspective on the Issues," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2004(Autumn), pages 3-14.
  3. Nathan S. Balke & Thomas B. Fomby, 1992. "Threshold cointegration," Research Paper 9209, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    • Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-45, August.
  4. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
  5. Mehmet Caner & Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1555-1596, November.
  6. Enders, Walter & Falk, Barry, 1998. "Threshold-autoregressive, median-unbiased, and cointegration tests of purchasing power parity," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 171-186, June.
  7. Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-28, April.
  8. Enders, Walter & Granger, Clive W J, 1998. "Unit-Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 304-11, July.
  9. Enders, Walter & Siklos, Pierre L, 2001. "Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 166-76, April.
  10. Simon M. Potter, 1993. "A Nonlinear Approach to U.S. GNP," UCLA Economics Working Papers 693, UCLA Department of Economics.
  11. Evans, George W, 1991. "Pitfalls in Testing for Explosive Bubbles in Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 922-30, September.
  12. Sunil Sharma & Sushil Bikhchandani, 2000. "herd Behavior in Financial Markets - A Review," IMF Working Papers 00/48, International Monetary Fund.
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