The forward method as a solution refinement in rational expectations models
AbstractThis paper generalizes the standard forward method of recursive substitution to a general class of linear rational expectations models with potentially multiple fundamental solutions. It is shown that the existence and uniqueness of the well-known forward solution are preserved in a general context. We also propose a key property embedded in the forward solution - the no-bubble condition - as an economically sensible solution refinement in the class of fundamental solutions. In the literature, the no-bubble condition has been assumed to rule out non-fundamental bubble solutions. We show that the forward solution is the only rational expectations equilibrium satisfying the no-bubble condition and consequently, it is the most relevant fundamental solution within the class of fundamental equilibria. Several economic examples are provided where the fundamental solutions obtained by other solution methods and refined by other solution selection criteria violate the no-bubble condition.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.
Volume (Year): 35 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (March)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc
Rational expectations Forward method Forward solution No-bubble condition;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- McCallum, Bennett T., 1983.
"On non-uniqueness in rational expectations models : An attempt at perspective,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 139-168.
- Bennett T. McCallum, 1983. "On Non-Uniqueness in Rational Expectations Models: An Attempt at Perspective," NBER Working Papers 0684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carl E. Walsh, 2003. "Monetary Theory and Policy, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232316, January.
- McCallum, Bennett T., 2004.
"On the relationship between determinate and MSV solutions in linear RE models,"
Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 55-60, July.
- Bennett McCallum, 2004. "On the Relationship Between Determinate and MSV Solutions in Linear RE Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bennett McCallum, . "On the Relationship Between Determinate and MSV Solutions in Linear RE Models," GSIA Working Papers 2003-E78, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1980. "An Economic Theory of Monetary Reform," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 24-58, February.
- Devereux, Michael B & Mansoorian, Arman, 1992. "International Fiscal Policy Coordination and Economic Growth," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 33(2), pages 249-68, May.
- Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2002.
"Testing for Indeterminacy:An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy,"
Economics Working Paper Archive
480, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics, revised Jun 2003.
- Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March.
- Blanchard, Olivier J, 1979. "Backward and Forward Solutions for Economies with Rational Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 114-18, May.
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
- King, Robert G & Watson, Mark W, 1998. "The Solution of Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1015-26, November.
- Roger E.A. Farmer & Jang Ting Guo, 1992.
"Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis,"
UCLA Economics Working Papers
680, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Farmer Roger E. A. & Guo Jang-Ting, 1994. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 42-72, June.
- Klein, Paul, 2000. "Using the generalized Schur form to solve a multivariate linear rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1405-1423, September.
- Bennett McCallum, 1999.
"Role of the Minimal State Variable Criterion in Rational Expectations Models,"
International Tax and Public Finance,
Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 621-639, November.
- Bennett T. McCallum, . "Role of the minimal state variable criterion in rational expectations models," GSIA Working Papers 1999-13, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
- Driskill, Robert, 2006. "Multiple equilibria in dynamic rational expectations models: A critical review," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 171-210, January.
- Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas J. Sargent, 2004. "Recursive Macroeconomic Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 026212274x, January.
- Sims, Christopher A, 2002.
"Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models,"
Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 1-20, October.
- Christopher Sims, 2001. "Matlab Code for Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models," QM&RBC Codes 11, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467.
- Lieven Baele & Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho & Koen Inghelbrecht & Antonio Moreno, 2011.
NBER Working Papers
17090, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Seonghoon Cho & Koen Inghelbrecht & Geert Bekaert & Antonio Moreno & Lieven Baele, 2011. "Macroeconomic Regimes," 2011 Meeting Papers 817, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Lieven Baele & et al., 2012. "Macroeconomic Regimes," Faculty Working Papers 03/12, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
- Hong Lan & Alexander Meyer-Gohde, 2012.
"Existence and Uniqueness of Perturbation Solutions to DSGE Models,"
SFB 649 Discussion Papers
SFB649DP2012-015, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Lan, Hong & Meyer-Gohde, Alexander, 2012. "Existence and Uniqueness of Perturbation Solutions in DSGE Models," Dynare Working Papers 14, CEPREMAP.
- Thanassis Kazanas & Elias Tzavalis, 2011. "Unveiling the monetary policy rule in euro area," Working Papers 130, Bank of Greece.
- Thanassis Kazanas & Apostolis Philippopoulos & Elias Tzavalis, 2011. "Monetary Policy Rules And Business Cycle Conditions," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(s2), pages 73-97, 09.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.