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The forward method as a solution refinement in rational expectations models

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  • Cho, Seonghoon
  • Moreno, Antonio

Abstract

This paper generalizes the standard forward method of recursive substitution to a general class of linear rational expectations models with potentially multiple fundamental solutions. It is shown that the existence and uniqueness of the well-known forward solution are preserved in a general context. We also propose a key property embedded in the forward solution - the no-bubble condition - as an economically sensible solution refinement in the class of fundamental solutions. In the literature, the no-bubble condition has been assumed to rule out non-fundamental bubble solutions. We show that the forward solution is the only rational expectations equilibrium satisfying the no-bubble condition and consequently, it is the most relevant fundamental solution within the class of fundamental equilibria. Several economic examples are provided where the fundamental solutions obtained by other solution methods and refined by other solution selection criteria violate the no-bubble condition.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 35 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (March)
Pages: 257-272

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:35:y:2011:i:3:p:257-272

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

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Keywords: Rational expectations Forward method Forward solution No-bubble condition;

References

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  1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
  2. Bennett McCallum, 2004. "On the Relationship Between Determinate and MSV Solutions in Linear RE Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  5. Bennett T. McCallum, 2008. "Determinacy, Learnability, and Plausibility in Monetary Policy Analysis: Additional Results," NBER Working Papers 14164, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  10. Bennett T. McCallum, 1981. "On Non-Uniqueness in Rational Expectations Models: An Attempt at Perspective," NBER Working Papers 0684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  14. Roger E.A. Farmer & Jang Ting Guo, 1992. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," UCLA Economics Working Papers 680, UCLA Department of Economics.
  15. Sims, Christopher A, 2002. "Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 1-20, October.
  16. Devereux, Michael B & Mansoorian, Arman, 1992. "International Fiscal Policy Coordination and Economic Growth," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 33(2), pages 249-68, May.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Lieven Baele & et al., 2012. "Macroeconomic Regimes," Faculty Working Papers 03/12, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  2. Bennett T. McCallum, 2012. "Determinacy, Learnability, Plausibility, and the Role of Money in New Keynesian Models," NBER Working Papers 18215, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Thanassis Kazanas & Apostolis Philippopoulos & Elias Tzavalis, 2011. "Monetary Policy Rules And Business Cycle Conditions," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(s2), pages 73-97, 09.
  4. Seonghoon Cho & Bennett T. McCallum, 2012. "Refining Linear Rational Expectations Models and Equilibria," NBER Working Papers 18348, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Lan, Hong & Meyer-Gohde, Alexander, 2012. "Existence and Uniqueness of Perturbation Solutions in DSGE Models," Dynare Working Papers 14, CEPREMAP.
  6. Thanassis Kazanas & Elias Tzavalis, 2011. "Unveiling the monetary policy rule in euro area," Working Papers 130, Bank of Greece.
  7. John Y. Campbell & Carolin Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2013. "Monetary Policy Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks," Harvard Business School Working Papers 14-031, Harvard Business School, revised Apr 2014.

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