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The Multivariate k-Nearest Neighbor Model for Dependent Variables : One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting

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  • Dominique Guegan

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Patrick Rakotomarolahy

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This article gives the asymptotic properties of multivariate k-nearest neighbor regression estimators for dependent variables belonging to Rd, d > 1. The results derived here permit to provide consistent forecasts, and confidence intervals for time series An illustration of the method is given through the estimation of economic indicators used to compute the GDP with the bridge equations. An empirical forecast accuracy comparison is provided by comparing this non-parametric method with a parametric one based on ARIMA modelling that we consider as a benchmark because it is still often used in Central Banks to nowcast and forecast the GDP.

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  • Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2009. "The Multivariate k-Nearest Neighbor Model for Dependent Variables : One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," Post-Print halshs-00423871, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00423871
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00423871v2
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    Cited by:

    1. Dominique Guégan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "A Short Note on the Nowcasting and the Forecasting of Euro-area GDP Using Non-Parametric Techniques," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(1), pages 508-518.
    2. Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "A Short Note on the Nowcasting and the Forecasting of Euro-area GDP Using Non-Parametric Techniques," Post-Print halshs-00460472, HAL.
    3. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:30:y:2010:i:1:p:508-518 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "A Short Note on the Nowcasting and the Forecasting of Euro-area GDP Using Non-Parametric Techniques," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-00460472, HAL.
    5. Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "A short note on the nowcasting and the forecasting of Euro-area GDP using non-parametric techniques," Post-Print halshs-00461711, HAL.

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