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Constructing narrowest pathwise bootstrap prediction bands using threshold accepting

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  • Staszewska-Bystrova, Anna
  • Winker, Peter

Abstract

Typically, prediction bands for path-forecasts are constructed pointwise, while inference relates to the whole forecasted path. In general, no closed form analytical solution is available for pathwise bands in finite samples. We consider a direct construction approach based on bootstrapped prediction bands. The resulting highly complex optimization problem is tackled using the local search heuristic of threshold accepting. A comparison with pointwise and asymptotic bands is provided, demonstrating superior properties of the proposed bands in small samples. Finally, a real application shows the practical implications of using an appropriate tool for generating the prediction bands.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 29 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 221-233

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:29:y:2013:i:2:p:221-233

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

Related research

Keywords: Bootstrapping; Forecast path; Prediction bands; Threshold accepting; Vector autoregressive models;

References

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  1. Busch, Ulrike & Scharnagl, Michael & Scheithauer, Jan, 2010. "Loan supply in Germany during the financial crisis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,05, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
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  5. Jae H. Kim, 2004. "Bias-corrected bootstrap prediction regions for vector autoregression," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 141-154.
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  10. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
  11. Anna Staszewska, 2006. "Representing Uncertainty about Response Paths: the Use of Heuristic Optimisation Methods," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 379, Society for Computational Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Òscar Jordá & Malte Knuppel & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2012. "Empirical simultaneous prediction regions for path-forecasts," Working Paper Series 2012-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  2. Helmut Lütkepohl & Anna Staszewska-Bystrova & Peter Winker, 2013. "Comparison of Methods for Constructing Joint Confidence Bands for Impulse Response Functions," MAGKS Papers on Economics, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung) 201325, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  3. Anna Staszewska-Bystrova & Peter Winker, 2014. "Measuring Forecast Uncertainty of Corporate Bond Spreads by Bonferroni-Type Prediction Bands," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 6(2), pages 89-104, June.
  4. Helmut Luetkepohl & Anna Staszewska-Bystrova & Peter Winker, 2014. "Confidence Bands for Impulse Responses: Bonferroni versus Wald," CESifo Working Paper Series 4634, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Anna Staszewska-Bystrova, 2013. "Modified Scheffé’s Prediction Bands," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 233(5-6), pages 680-690, October.

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