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Bootstrap prediction intervals for autoregressive time series

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  • Clements, Michael P.
  • Kim, Jae H.

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  • Clements, Michael P. & Kim, Jae H., 2007. "Bootstrap prediction intervals for autoregressive time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 3580-3594, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:51:y:2007:i:7:p:3580-3594
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    1. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2006. "Forecasting with Breaks," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 605-657, Elsevier.
    2. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Bootstrapping Autoregressive Processes with Possible Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 377-391, January.
    3. Andrews, Donald W K & Chen, Hong-Yuan, 1994. "Approximately Median-Unbiased Estimation of Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 187-204, April.
    4. Bruce E. Hansen, 1999. "The Grid Bootstrap And The Autoregressive Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 594-607, November.
    5. Kim, Jae H, 2001. "Bootstrap-after-Bootstrap Prediction Intervals for Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(1), pages 117-128, January.
    6. Chatfield, Chris, 1993. "Calculating Interval Forecasts: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 143-144, April.
    7. Masarotto, Guido, 1990. "Bootstrap prediction intervals for autoregressions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 229-239, July.
    8. James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Bootstrap inference in econometrics," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(4), pages 615-645, November.
    9. Paul Kabaila, 1993. "On Bootstrap Predictive Inference For Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(5), pages 473-484, September.
    10. Gospodinov, Nikolay, 2002. "Median unbiased forecasts for highly persistent autoregressive processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 85-101, November.
    11. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1990. "Unit roots in real GNP: Do we know, and do we care?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 7-61, January.
    12. Michael P. Clements & David F.Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting with difference-stationary and trend-stationary models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages 1-19.
    13. Pascual, Lorenzo & Romo, Juan & Ruiz, Esther, 2006. "Bootstrap prediction for returns and volatilities in GARCH models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(9), pages 2293-2312, May.
    14. Chatfield, Chris, 1993. "Calculating Interval Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 121-135, April.
    15. Kim, Jae H, 2002. "Bootstrap Prediction Intervals for Autoregressive Models of Unknown or Infinite Lag Order," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 265-280, July.
    16. Clements, Michael P. & Taylor, Nick, 2001. "Bootstrapping prediction intervals for autoregressive models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 247-267.
    17. MacKinnon, James G. & Smith Jr., Anthony A., 1998. "Approximate bias correction in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 205-230, August.
    18. Jeremy Berkowitz & Lutz Kilian, 2000. "Recent developments in bootstrapping time series," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 1-48.
    19. Pascual, Lorenzo & Romo, Juan & Ruiz, Esther, 2001. "Effects of parameter estimation on prediction densities: a bootstrap approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 83-103.
    20. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May.
    21. Roy, Anindya & Fuller, Wayne A, 2001. "Estimation for Autoregressive Time Series with a Root Near 1," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 482-493, October.
    22. Kim, Jae H., 1999. "Asymptotic and bootstrap prediction regions for vector autoregression," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 393-403, October.
    23. G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), 2006. "Handbook of Economic Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    24. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Accounting for Lag Order Uncertainty in Autoregressions: the Endogenous Lag Order Bootstrap Algorithm," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(5), pages 531-548, September.
    25. Grigoletto, Matteo, 1998. "Bootstrap prediction intervals for autoregressions: some alternatives," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 447-456, December.
    26. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Exactly Median-Unbiased Estimation of First Order Autoregressive/Unit Root Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 139-165, January.
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    2. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1548-1568.
    3. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Xuewen Yu, 2019. "Generalized Forecasr Averaging in Autoregressions with a Near Unit Root," Purdue University Economics Working Papers 1318, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
    4. Zi‐Yi Guo, 2021. "Out‐of‐sample performance of bias‐corrected estimators for diffusion processes," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(2), pages 243-268, March.
    5. Liu, Shen & Maharaj, Elizabeth Ann & Inder, Brett, 2014. "Polarization of forecast densities: A new approach to time series classification," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 345-361.
    6. Alonso, Andres M. & Sipols, Ana E., 2008. "A time series bootstrap procedure for interpolation intervals," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 1792-1805, January.
    7. Anna Staszewska-Bystrova & Peter Winker, 2016. "Improved bootstrap prediction intervals for SETAR models," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 89-98, March.
    8. João Henrique Gonçalves Mazzeu & Esther Ruiz & Helena Veiga, 2018. "Uncertainty And Density Forecasts Of Arma Models: Comparison Of Asymptotic, Bayesian, And Bootstrap Procedures," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 388-419, April.
    9. Bertail, Patrice & Clemencon, Stephan, 2008. "Approximate regenerative-block bootstrap for Markov chains," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 2739-2756, January.
    10. Takada, Teruko, 2009. "Simulated minimum Hellinger distance estimation of stochastic volatility models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 2390-2403, April.
    11. Stephen Haben & Julien Caudron & Jake Verma, 2021. "Probabilistic Day-Ahead Wholesale Price Forecast: A Case Study in Great Britain," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-37, August.
    12. Giovanni Fonseca & Federica Giummolè & Paolo Vidoni, 2021. "A note on simultaneous calibrated prediction intervals for time series," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 30(1), pages 317-330, March.
    13. Anna Staszewska‐Bystrova, 2011. "Bootstrap prediction bands for forecast paths from vector autoregressive models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(8), pages 721-735, December.
    14. Diego Fresoli, 2022. "Bootstrap VAR forecasts: The effect of model uncertainties," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 279-293, March.
    15. Alonso Fernández, Andrés Modesto & Bastos, Guadalupe & García-Martos, Carolina, 2017. "BIAS correction for dynamic factor models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 24029, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    16. Anna Staszewska-Bystrova, 2009. "Bootstrap Confidence Bands for Forecast Paths," Working Papers 024, COMISEF.
    17. Gonçalves Mazzeu, Joao Henrique & Ruiz Ortega, Esther & Veiga, Helena, 2015. "Model uncertainty and the forecast accuracy of ARMA models: A survey," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1508, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    18. Staszewska-Bystrova, Anna & Winker, Peter, 2013. "Constructing narrowest pathwise bootstrap prediction bands using threshold accepting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 221-233.
    19. Luisa Bisaglia & Margherita Gerolimetto, 2019. "Model-based INAR bootstrap for forecasting INAR(p) models," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 1815-1848, December.

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