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Recognizing the Bias: Financial Cycles and Fiscal Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Mrs. Nina Budina
  • Mr. Borja Gracia
  • Xingwei Hu
  • Mr. Sergejs Saksonovs

Abstract

This paper argues that asset price cycles have significant effects on fiscal outcomes. In particular, there is evidence of debt bias—the tendency of debt to increase over the cycle— that is significantly larger for house price cycles than stand-alone business cycles. Automatic stabilizers and discretionary fiscal policy generally respond to output fluctuations, whereas revenue increases due to house price booms are largely treated as permanent. Thus, neglecting the direct and indirect impact of asset prices on fiscal accounts encourages procyclical fiscal policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Mrs. Nina Budina & Mr. Borja Gracia & Xingwei Hu & Mr. Sergejs Saksonovs, 2015. "Recognizing the Bias: Financial Cycles and Fiscal Policy," IMF Working Papers 2015/246, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2015/246
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Xingwei Hu, 2018. "A Theory of Dichotomous Valuation with Applications to Variable Selection," Papers 1808.00131, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.
    2. Beau Soederhuizen & Rutger Teulings & Rob Luginbuhl, 2019. "Estimating the Impact of the Financial Cycle on Fiscal Policy," CPB Discussion Paper 398, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    3. Floro, Danvee, 2019. "Testing the predictive ability of house price bubbles for macroeconomic performance: A meta-analytic approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 164-181.
    4. Bjarni G. Einarsson & Kristófer Gunnlaugsson & Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson & Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2016. "The long history of financial boom-bust cycles in Iceland - Part II: Financial cycles," Economics wp72, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    5. Tigran Poghosyan, 2018. "How do financial cycles affect public debt cycles?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 425-460, March.
    6. Xingwei Hu, 2020. "A theory of dichotomous valuation with applications to variable selection," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(10), pages 1075-1099, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; debt; price; housing cycles; public debt; private debt; debt bias; bias estimate; state dummy; growth shock; growth episode; output gap downturn; cycle episode; house-price shock; house price episode; house price cycles result in a public sector debt bias; cycles result in a public sector debt bias; house price cycle episode; Housing prices; Financial cycles; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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