Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The Stability of Export-led Growth Hypothesis: Evidence from Asia's Four Little Dragons

Contents:

Author Info

  • Tang, Chor Foon
  • Lai, Yew Wah

Abstract

The objective of this study is to re-investigate the export-led growth hypothesis for Asia’s Four Little Dragons using cointegration and rolling causality analyses. Employing both bivariate (exports and GDP) and trivariate (exports, GDP and exchange rate) models, the study finds that exports and GDP are cointegrated for all the four economies, implying that there is a long run relationship between the variables. However, the MWALD causality test results differ between the bivariate and trivariate models. The export-led growth hypothesis is valid only for the case of Hong Kong and Singapore in the bivariate model but valid for all four economies in the trivariate model. Furthermore, the rolling regression-based MWALD test shows that export-led growth in each of the four economies is not stable over their respective period of analysis.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/27962/
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/52195/
File Function: revised version
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 27962.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:27962

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3900
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Asia’s Four Little Dragons; Export-led growth; Rolling MWALD test;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Schlitzer, Giuseppe, 1995. "Testing the stationarity of economic time series: further Monte Carlo evidence," Ricerche Economiche, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 125-144, June.
  2. Chor Foon Tang, 2010. "The Money-prices Nexus for Malaysia: New Empirical Evidence from the Time-varying Cointegration and Causality Tests," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(4), pages 383-403.
  3. Masih, Rumi & Masih, Abul M. M., 2000. "A Reassessment of Long-Run Elasticities of Japanese Import Demand," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 625-639, September.
  4. Judith Giles & Cara Williams, 2001. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 2," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 445-470.
  5. Chor Foon Tang, 2008. "Wagner’s Law versus Keynesian Hypothesis: New Evidence from Recursive Regression-Based Causality Approaches," The IUP Journal of Public Finance, IUP Publications, vol. 0(4), pages 29-38, November.
  6. Xu, Zhenhui, 1998. "Export and Income Growth in Japan and Taiwan," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 220-33, May.
  7. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  8. Thoma, Mark A., 1994. "Subsample instability and asymmetries in money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 279-306.
  9. Gordon, D.V. & Sakyi-Bekoe, K., 1990. "Testing the Export-Growth Hypothsis for Ghana," Department of Economics at Dalhousie University working papers archive 90-10, Dalhousie, Department of Economics.
  10. Ali F. Darrat, 1986. "Trade and Development: The Asian Experience," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 6(2), pages 695-699, Fall.
  11. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
  12. Zapata, Hector O. & Rambaldi, Alicia N., 1996. "Monte Carlo Evidence On Cointegration And Causation," Staff Papers 31690, Louisiana State University, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness.
  13. Jordan Shan & Fiona Sun, 1998. "On the export-led growth hypothesis for the little dragons: An empirical reinvestigation," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(4), pages 353-371, December.
  14. Robert A. Amano & Simon van Norden, 1995. "Unit Root Tests and the Burden of Proof," Econometrics 9502005, EconWPA.
  15. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  16. Jung, Woo S. & Marshall, Peyton J., 1985. "Exports, growth and causality in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-12.
  17. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
  18. Timmermann, Allan, 2008. "Elusive return predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 1-18.
  19. Howells, Peter & Hussein, Khaled, 1997. "The demand for money: Total transactions as the scale variable," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 371-377, September.
  20. James G. MacKinnon, 1995. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 918, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  21. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
  22. Saikkonen, Pentti, 1991. "Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Cointegration Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(01), pages 1-21, March.
  23. Mansor H. Ibrahim & Hassanuddeen Aziz, 2003. "Macroeconomic variables and the Malaysian equity market: A view through rolling subsamples," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 30(1), pages 6-27, January.
  24. Tuck Cheong Tang, 2008. "Aggregate Import Demand Function for Japan: A Cointegration Re-investigation," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 363-377.
  25. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
  26. Judith Giles & Cara Williams, 2001. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 1," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 261-337.
  27. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
  28. Pradeep Agrawal, 2001. "The relation between savings and growth: cointegration and causality evidence from Asia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 499-513.
  29. Yousif. Al-Yousif, 1999. "On the Role Exports in the Economic Growth of Malaysia: A Multivariate Analysis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 67-75.
  30. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Ahdi N. Ajmi & Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Causality between Exports and Economic Growth in South Africa: Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear Tests," Working Papers 201339, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:27962. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.