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Dynamic Causal Chain of Money, Output, Interest Rate and Prices in Malaysia: Evidence Based On Vector Error- Correction Modelling Analysis

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  • Tan Hui Boon
  • Baharumshah Ahmad Zubaidi

Abstract

The dynamic causal chain among money, real output, interest rate, and inflation is Reexamined in the context of a small fast-growing economy using the recently developed techniques of Johansen's multivariate conitegration analysis followed by vector error-correction modelling, Granger causality, variance decompositions, and impulse response functions. The results of the multivariate cointegration tests suggested a stable long-run equilibrium relationship exists among these macroeconomic variables. The short-run results based on vector error-correction modeling, on the other hand, support the New Keynesians' view that money is non- neutral, at least in the short-run. It also indicates that monetary policy can contribute to the stability of domestic prices. M1, among the various definitions of money stock, has been identified as the most effective intermediate monetary target to curb inflation. M3, in turn, has been suggested as the most appropriate intermediate target to promote sustainable economic growth with contained inflation. For this economy, the deviation of the macroeconomic activity from its long-run equilibrium is adjusted through changes in the money stock and prices [E44]

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  • Tan Hui Boon & Baharumshah Ahmad Zubaidi, 1999. "Dynamic Causal Chain of Money, Output, Interest Rate and Prices in Malaysia: Evidence Based On Vector Error- Correction Modelling Analysis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 103-120.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:13:y:1999:i:1:p:103-120
    DOI: 10.1080/10168739900000032
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    Cited by:

    1. Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2004. "Which Lag Length Selection Criteria Should We Employ?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(33), pages 1-9.
    2. Chee Loong, Lee & Chun Hao, Laiu & Nur Hidayah, Ramli & Nur Sabrina, Mohd Palel, 2018. "Dynamic Interactions in Macroeconomic Activities," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 26(3), pages 1651-1672.
    3. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2004:i:33:p:1-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Olanrewaju, Akanbi Michael & Temitope, Dada James, 2018. "Monetary Policy Shocks and Industrial Output in Nigeria: A Dynamic Effect," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 6(1), January.
    5. João Tovar Jalles, 2019. "Monetary Aggregates and Macroeconomic Performance: The Portuguese Escudo, 1911–1999," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 719-740, October.
    6. Rasika Perera & Masaru Ichihashi, 2016. "Financial Development and Economic Growth in Sri Lanka," IDEC DP2 Series 6-6, Hiroshima University, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation (IDEC).
    7. Tang, Maggie May-Jean, 2016. "A Review of the Literature on Monetary Neutrality," MPRA Paper 70113, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. R. Ratneswary V. Rasiah, 2010. "Macroeconomic Activity And The Malaysian Stock Market: Empirical Evidence Of Dynamic Relations," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 4(2), pages 59-69.
    9. Mansor H. Ibrahim, 2005. "Sectoral Effects of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Malaysia," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 83-102, March.
    10. Tang, Maggie May-Jean & Puah, Chin-Hong & Awang Marikan, Dayang-Affizzah, 2013. "Empirical Evidence on the Long-Run Neutrality Hypothesis Using Divisia Money," MPRA Paper 50020, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Cai, Yifei, 2016. "货币供给数量、结构与经济增长—来自adl门限协整检验与时变格兰杰因果关系检验的证据 [Quantity and Structure of Money Supply and Economic Growth— Evidence from ADL Test for Threshold Cointegration and Time-varying Granger Causality Relation," MPRA Paper 73750, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2004. "On Autoregressive Order Selection Criteria," Computational Economics 0404001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Biswajit Maitra, 2015. "Monetary Policy, Income Growth and Price Stability in Malaysia," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 4(1), pages 91-117, June.
    14. Masih, Mansur & AbdulKarim, Fatima, 2014. "Dynamic causal chain of money, output, interest rate, exchange rate and prices: Nigeria as a case study," MPRA Paper 58240, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Tang, Chor Foon, 2008. "Is inflation always a monetary phenomenon in Malaysia?," MPRA Paper 19778, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Chor Foon Tang & Ilhan Ozturk, 2017. "Can Inflation be Claimed as a Monetary Phenomenon? The Malaysian Experience," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 453-460.

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