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Relative importance of sectoral and aggregate sources of price changes

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  • Hiranya Nath

Abstract

This paper estimates a dynamic common factor model to assess relative importance of the aggregate and the sector-specific factors that determine changes in the prices of individual products. It also examines how aggregate price changes are affected by these factors. Two different specifications of the model are estimated: the baseline model with one aggregate factor, and a second specification with two aggregate factors. In the one-actor model, the aggregate factor contributes little to the movements of changes in prices, mostly of nondurable goods whereas it seems to have important contributions to the movements of changes in prices of commodity groups mainly used as intermediate or capital goods. In the specification with two aggregate factors, the additional factor has significant effects on changes in prices of 'farm products' and 'processed foods and feeds' only. Forecast-error variance decompositions of both aggregate and disaggregate price changes suggest that sectoral factors account for most of the variability at short horizons while the contributions of the aggregate factors increase as the time horizon lengthens. The results also show that sectoral factors are not only important for relative price changes but also have significant impact on aggregate inflation. The estimated common factors have statistically significant correlations with money growth and changes in the unemployment rate.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 36 (2004)
Issue (Month): 16 ()
Pages: 1781-1796

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:36:y:2004:i:16:p:1781-1796

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  1. Prakash Loungani & Phillip Swagel, 1995. "Supply-side sources of inflation: evidence from OECD countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 515, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Nathan S. Balke & Mark A. Wynne, 1996. "An equilibrium analysis of relative price changes and aggregate inflation," Working Papers 9609, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  3. Norrbin, Stefan C. & Schlagenhauf, Don E., 1990. "Sources of output fluctuations in the United States during the inter-war and post-war years," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 523-551, October.
  4. Watson, Mark W. & Engle, Robert F., 1983. "Alternative algorithms for the estimation of dynamic factor, mimic and varying coefficient regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 385-400, December.
  5. Ball, Laurence & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1995. "Relative-Price Changes as Aggregate Supply Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 161-93, February.
  6. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1993. "The Consumer Price Index as a Measure of Inflation," NBER Working Papers 4505, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Guy Debelle & Owen Lamont, 1996. "Relative Price Variability and Inflation: Evidence from US Cities," NBER Working Papers 5627, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Nathan S. Balke & Hiranya K. Nath, 2006. "Sectoral Price Changes and Output Growth: Supply and Demand in General Equilibrium," Working Papers 0604, Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business.
  9. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "A Probability Model of The Coincident Economic Indicators," NBER Working Papers 2772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Rather, Sartaj Rasool & Durai, S. Raja Sethu & Ramachandran, M., 2014. "Inflation and relative price variability: Evidence for India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 32-41.

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