The Effect Of Defense Spending On Us Output: A Factor Augmented Vector Autoregression (Favar) Approach
AbstractEmpirical evidence on the effect of defense spending on US output is at best mixed. Against this backdrop, this paper assesses the impact of a positive defense spending shock on the growth rate of real GNP using a Factor Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) model estimated with 116 variables spanning the quarterly period of 1976:01 to 2005:02. Overall, the results show that a positive shock to the growth rate of the real defense spending translates to a positive short-run effect on the growth rate of real GNP lasting up to ten quarters, but the effect is significant only for two quarters. Beyond the tenth quarter, the effect becomes negative and shows signs of slow reversal at around the 17th quarter. Our results tend to indicate that the mixed empirical evidence, based on small-scale Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Vector Error Correction (VEC) models, could be a result of a small information set not capturing the true theoretical relationships between the two variables of interest.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Defence and Peace Economics.
Volume (Year): 21 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/GDPE20
Other versions of this item:
- Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi & Emmanuel Ziramba, 2009. "The Effect Of Defense Spending On Us Output: A Factor Augmented Vector Autoregression (Favar) Approach," Working Papers 200911, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- H41 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Public Goods
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Muhammad, Shahbaz & Nuno, Carlos Leitão & Ghazi, Salah Uddin, 2012.
"Should Portuguese Economy Invest in Defense Spending? A Revisit,"
42289, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 26 Oct 2012.
- Shahbaz, Muhammad & Leitão, Nuno Carlos & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2013. "Should Portuguese economy invest in defense spending? A revisit," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 805-815.
- Shahbaz, Muhammad & Afza, Talat & Shabbir, Shahbaz Muhammad, 2011.
"Does defence spending impede economic growth? cointegration and causality analysis for Pakistan,"
30887, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 Mar 2011.
- Muhammad Shahbaz & Talat Afza & Muhammad Shahbaz Shabbir, 2013. "Does Defence Spending Impede Economic Growth? Cointegration And Causality Analysis For Pakistan," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 105-120, April.
- Takao Fujii & Kazuki Hiraga & Masafumi Kozuka, 2012. "Analyses of Public Investment Shock in Japan: Factor Augmented Vector Autoregressive Approach," Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Discussion Paper Series 2012-006, Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Program.
- Tiwari, Aviral & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2011. "Does Defence Spending Stimulate Economic Growth in India?," MPRA Paper 30880, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Apr 2011.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.