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Threshold Effects in Sticky Information Philips Curve: Evidence from Iran

Author

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  • Hematy , Maryam

    (Monetary and Banking Research Institute (MBRI), Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran (CBI))

  • Pedram , Mehdi

    (Alzahra University)

Abstract

During the last decade, several studies have argued that sticky information model proposed by Mankiw and Reis (2002), in which firms update their information occasionally rather than instantaneously, explains some stylized facts about the inflation dynamics. Sticky information pricing model successfully captures the sluggish movement of aggregate prices in response to monetary policy shocks. Despite the importance of sticky information, no empirical studies have been done yet to estimate sticky information Philips Curve (SIPC) and its key parameter - the degree of information rigidity - in Iran. This paper is the first attempt to estimate the degree of information stickiness in Iran using the two stage empirical approach proposed by Khan and Zhu (2006). Having the correct structural parameter allows a better understanding of the dynamics of inflation. Results show that the average duration of information stickiness ranges from 3.2 to 4 quarters in Iran. In addition, the existence of threshold effects in SIPC is also tested in this paper. Based on the estimation of TAR model over 2002Q2- 2015Q1, firms update information faster when inflation is higher. This evidence suggests that firms are more aware of macroeconomic conditions when inflation is higher; that is, missing information during high inflation periods is costly.

Suggested Citation

  • Hematy , Maryam & Pedram , Mehdi, 2015. "Threshold Effects in Sticky Information Philips Curve: Evidence from Iran," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 10(1), pages 1-23, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:mbr:jmonec:v:10:y:2015:i:1:p:1-23
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Degree of information stickiness; Sticky information Philips Curve; Out of sample forecasting; Threshold model; Bootstrap;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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