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An Experimental Examination of Asset Pricing Under Market Uncertainty

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Abstract

In a novel laboratory asset market, traders buy and sell shares of a monopolist while observing its price and transaction history in real-time. Dividends are based on the profitability of the monopolist, also an experimental subject. Despite dividend uncertainty resulting from both monopolist behavior and imperfect information about product market fundamentals, the present value of the dividend stream provides the best estimate of observed asset prices. We compare our data to previous experimental asset markets in which dividends were drawn from a known discrete distribution. While we still detect some mispricing, asset price bubbles are significantly smaller when dividends depend on an observable market process.

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File URL: http://www.sfu.ca/econ-research/RePEc/sfu/sfudps/dp12-21.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University in its series Discussion Papers with number dp12-21.

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Length: 48
Date of creation: Dec 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sfu:sfudps:dp12-21

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Postal: Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, BC, V5A 1S6, Canada
Phone: (778)782-3508
Fax: (778)782-5944
Web page: http://www.sfu.ca/economics.html
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Postal: Working Paper Coordinator, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, BC, V5A 1S6, Canada
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Web: http://www.sfu.ca/economics/research/publications.html

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Keywords: Asset Markets; Uncertainty; Experimental Economics;

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  1. Charles Noussair & Steven Tucker, 2006. "Futures Markets And Bubble Formation In Experimental Asset Markets ," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(2), pages 167-184, 06.
  2. Porter, David P & Smith, Vernon L, 1995. "Futures Contracting and Dividend Uncertainty in Experimental Asset Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(4), pages 509-41, October.
  3. Lei, V. & Noussair, C. & Plott, C.R., 1998. "Non-Speculative Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets: Lack of Common Knowledge of Rationality Vs. Actual Irrationality," Purdue University Economics Working Papers 1120, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
  4. Kenneth D. West, 1988. "Bubbles, Fads, and Stock Price Volatility Tests: A Partial Evaluation," NBER Working Papers 2574, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Cary A. Deck & Bart J. Wilson, 2006. "Tracking Customer Search to Price Discriminate," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 44(2), pages 280-295, April.
  6. Mark van Boening & Vernon L. Smith & Charissa P. Wellford, 2000. "Dividend timing and behavior in laboratory asset markets," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 567-583.
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