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Futures Contracting and Dividend Uncertainty in Experimental Asset Markets

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Author Info
Porter, David P
Smith, Vernon L

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Abstract

Prices in experimental asset markets tend to bubble and then crash to dividend value at the end of the asset's useful life. Explanations for this phenomenon are (1) that participants cannot form reliable future price expectations or (2) dividend risk aversion. We report the results of experiments to test these hypotheses. In one experimental series, a futures market is introduced so that participants can obtain information on future share prices. In another series of experiments, the per-period dividend is known with certainty. The futures market treatment reduced the bubble. The certain dividend treatment had little effect on the character of bubbles with inexperienced traders. Copyright 1995 by University of Chicago Press.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Journal of Business.

Volume (Year): 68 (1995)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 509-41
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Handle: RePEc:ucp:jnlbus:v:68:y:1995:i:4:p:509-41

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  1. John Duffy & M. Utku Unver, 2003. "Asset Price Bubbles and Crashes with Near-Zero-Intelligence Traders: Towards an Understanding of Laboratory Findings," Computational Economics 0307001, EconWPA, revised 17 Mar 2004. [Downloadable!]
  2. Martin Barner & Francesco Feri & Charles R. Plott, 2005. "On the microstructure of price determination and information aggregation with sequential and asymmetric information arrival in an experimental asset market," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 73-107, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Ross M. Miller, 2002. "Can Markets Learn to Avoid Bubbles?," Experimental 0201001, EconWPA, revised 07 Jan 2002. [Downloadable!]
  4. Lei, Vivian & Noussair, Charles & Plott, Charles R., 2002. "Asset Bubbles and Rationality: Additional Evidence from Capital Gains Tax Experiments," Working Papers 1137, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
  5. Giulio Bottazzi & Giovanna Devetag, 2005. "Expectations structure in asset pricing experiments," CEEL Working Papers 0503, Computable and Experimental Economics Laboratory, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Lucy F. Ackert & Narat Charupat & Richard Deaves & Brian D. Kluger, 2006. "The origins of bubbles in laboratory asset markets," Working Paper 2006-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  7. Baldursson, Fridrik M. & Sturluson, Jon Thor, 2008. "Fees and the efficiency of tradable permit systems: an experimental approach," MPRA Paper 14182, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2009. [Downloadable!]
  8. Dufwenberg, Martin & Lindqvist, Tobias & Moore, Evan, 2003. "Bubbles and Experience: An Experiment on Speculation," Research Papers in Economics 2003:1, Stockholm University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Martin Dufwenberg & Tobias Lindqvist & Evan Moore, 2005. "Bubbles and Experience: An Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1731-1737, December. [Downloadable!]
  10. Lucy F. Ackert & Bryan K. Church, 1998. "The effects of subject pool and design experience on rationality in experimental asset markets," Working Paper 98-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  11. Barner, Martin & Feri, Francesco & Plott, Charles, 2004. "On the Microstructure of Price Determination and Information Aggregation with Sequential and Asymmetric Information Arrival in an Experimental Asset Market," Working Papers 1204, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
  12. Ross M. Miller, 2003. "Don't Let Your Robots Grow Up To Be Traders: Artificial Intelligence, Human Intelligence, and Asset-Market Bubbles," Experimental 0306001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Giulio Bottazzi & Giovanna Devetag & Francesca Pancotto, 2008. "Does Volatility matter? Expectations of price return and variability in an asset pricing experiment," CEEL Working Papers 0801, Computable and Experimental Economics Laboratory, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Andrew Reeson & Karel Nolles, 2009. "Experimental Economics: Applications to Environmental Policy," Socio-Economics and the Environment in Discussion (SEED) Working Paper Series 2009-03, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems. [Downloadable!]
  15. Charles Noussair & Stephane Robin & Bernard Ruffieux, 2001. "Price Bubbles in Laboratory Asset Markets with Constant Fundamental Values," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 87-105, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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