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Consumption-based macroeconomic forecasting

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Author Info
Jeffrey R. Campbell
Spencer Krane

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Abstract

The authors build a small-scale econometric model based on the permanent income theory of consumption and balanced economic growth in order to study the influence of permanent and transitory factors on the level of economic activity.

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File URL: http://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economicperspectives/ep_4qtr2005_part4_campbell_krane.pdf
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its journal Economic Perspectives.

Volume (Year): (2005)
Issue (Month): Q IV ()
Pages: 52-70
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhep:y:2005:i:qiv:p:52-70:n:v.29no.4

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Related research
Keywords: Macroeconomics ; Consumption (Economics);

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2006. "The Dynamic Effects of Neutral and Investment-Specific Technology Shocks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(3), pages 413-451, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-68, July.
  3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2002. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Working Papers 9127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Zvi Hercowitz, 2005. "The Role of Collateralized Household Debt in Macroeconomic Stabilization," NBER Working Papers 11330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Robert E. Hall, 2005. "Separating the Business Cycle from Other Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 11651, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. James A. Kahn & Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "On the causes of the increased stability of the U.S. economy," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 183-202. [Downloadable!]
  10. Cochrane, John H, 1994. "Permanent and Transitory Components of GNP and Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(1), pages 241-65, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Robert E. Hall, 2005. "Separating the business cycle from other economic fluctuations," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 133-179. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-18.


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