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Oil Prices and the World Economy

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  • Ray Barrell

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  • Olga Pomerantz

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    Abstract

    High oil prices have been associated with bouts of inflation and economic instability over the last 30 years. Consequently, the rise of oil prices in recent months has generated concern. We argue that the inflationary consequences of a rise in oil prices depend upon the policy response of the monetary authorities. They can ameliorate the short-term impacts on output, but only at the cost of higher inflation. In the short term, the size and distribution of output effects from an increase in oil prices depends on the intensity of oil use in production and on the speed at which oil producers spend their revenue. In the medium term, higher oil prices change the terms of trade between the OECD and the rest of the world and hence reduce the equilibrium level of output within the OECD. In this paper the authors first discuss oil market developments and survey previous studies on the impacts of oil price increases. In a next step, the NiGEM model is used to evaluate the impact of temporary and permanent rises in oil prices on the world economy under various policy responses, and the impact of a decline in the speed of oil revenue recycling is analyzed.

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    File URL: http://www.oenb.at/dms/oenb/Publikationen/Volkswirtschaft/Focus-on-European-Economic-Integration/2004/Focus-on-European-Economic-Integration-Q1-04/chapters/oil_prices_tcm16-20271.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its journal Focus on European Economic Integration.

    Volume (Year): (2004)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 152-177

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    Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbfi:y:2004:i:1:b:5

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    Cited by:
    1. Mohanty, Sunil & Nandha, Mohan & Bota, Gabor, 2010. "Oil shocks and stock returns: The case of the Central and Eastern European (CEE) oil and gas sectors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 358-372, December.
    2. Hassan, Syeda Anam & Zaman, Khalid, 2012. "Effect of oil prices on trade balance: New insights into the cointegration relationship from Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2125-2143.
    3. Ruiz, Juan, 2004. "Causas y consecuencias de la evolución reciente del precio del petróleo," MPRA Paper 431, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Marcelo Sánchez, 2011. "Oil shocks and endogenous markups: results from an estimated euro area DSGE model," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 247-273, September.
    5. Beirne, John & Beulen, Christian & Liu, Guy & Mirzaei, Ali, 2013. "Global oil prices and the impact of China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 37-51.

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