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Global oil prices and the impact of China

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  • Beirne, John
  • Beulen, Christian
  • Liu, Guy
  • Mirzaei, Ali

Abstract

This paper assesses the externality impact of China's excessive growth as a China factor on the world economy via examining the effect of Chinese GDP growth on oil prices as a case for the issue. Our assessment starts, firstly, by estimating a country-level demand model to determine the GDP influences of an individual country on oil demand. Secondly, it estimates the impact of world aggregate demand on oil prices. This two-stage approach enables us to estimate the effect of the GDP growth of an individual nation on oil demand globally and the global price of oil. The estimated demand model is applied to quantify the effect of the Chinese GDP growth on the price of oil through simulations of a range of scenarios for each year over the period 2009 to 2030. We find that China's excessive growth adds a premium to the price of oil which increases over time. The results have policy implications in terms of the sustainability of the Chinese faster growth rate from the perspective of its negative externalities to the world.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal China Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 27 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 37-51

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Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:27:y:2013:i:c:p:37-51

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/chieco

Related research

Keywords: China; Oil prices; Externality costs;

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References

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  1. Ray Barrell & Olga Pomerantz, 2004. "Oil Prices and the World Economy," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 152-177.
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Cited by:
  1. Ronald A. Ratti & Joaquin L. Vespignani, 2014. "Oil prices and the economy: A global perspective," CAMA Working Papers 2014-41, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  2. Barnebeck Andersen,Thomas & Barslund, Mikkel & Worm Hansen, Casper & Harr, Thomas & Sandholt Jensen, Peter, 2013. "How much did China’s WTO accession increase economic growth in resource-rich countries?," CEPS Papers 8471, Centre for European Policy Studies.
  3. Wensheng Kang & Ronald A. Ratti, 2014. "Policy Uncertainty in China, Oil Shocks and Stock Returns," CAMA Working Papers 2014-32, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

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