Causas y consecuencias de la evolución reciente del precio del petróleo
AbstractThe price of oil has had a marked increase since 2002. The prices of Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude -the two main benhcmarks of the market- have surpassed their historical maximum reached in 1991 during the first Gulf War, though, in real terms, the price of oil is still below that of 1980. This increase in prices, and the risk of further increments, justifies an evaluation of the consequences on global growth and inflation. This article presents a brief review of the recent evolution of the price of oil and tries to identify the main factors behind its increase. In addition, some factors that can influence the future evolution of the price of oil in the short and long run are presented, as well as an estimation of the effect of a further increase in the price of oil over growth and inflation for the main industrial economies.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 431.
Date of creation: 16 Dec 2004
Date of revision:
Oil price; growth; inflation; global economy;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
- Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-11-12 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2006-11-12 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-HIS-2006-11-12 (Business, Economic & Financial History)
- NEP-MAC-2006-11-12 (Macroeconomics)
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