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Causas y consecuencias de la evolución reciente del precio del petróleo

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Ruiz, Juan

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Abstract

The price of oil has had a marked increase since 2002. The prices of Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude -the two main benhcmarks of the market- have surpassed their historical maximum reached in 1991 during the first Gulf War, though, in real terms, the price of oil is still below that of 1980. This increase in prices, and the risk of further increments, justifies an evaluation of the consequences on global growth and inflation. This article presents a brief review of the recent evolution of the price of oil and tries to identify the main factors behind its increase. In addition, some factors that can influence the future evolution of the price of oil in the short and long run are presented, as well as an estimation of the effect of a further increase in the price of oil over growth and inflation for the main industrial economies.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 431.

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Date of creation: 16 Dec 2004
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:431

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Keywords: Oil price growth inflation global economy

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation
E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Dieppe, Alistair & Henry, Jerome, 2004. "The euro area viewed as a single economy: how does it respond to shocks?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 833-875, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez & Marcelo Sánchez, 2004. "Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries," Working Paper Series 362, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Thomas Dalsgaard & Christophe André & Pete Richardson, 2001. "Standard Shocks in the OECD Interlink Model," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 306, OECD Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ben Hunt & Peter Isard & Douglas Laxton, . "The Macroeconomic Effects of Higher Oil Prices," IMF Working Papers 01/14, International Monetary Fund.
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