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Causas y consecuencias de la evolución reciente del precio del petróleo

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  • Ruiz, Juan

Abstract

The price of oil has had a marked increase since 2002. The prices of Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude -the two main benhcmarks of the market- have surpassed their historical maximum reached in 1991 during the first Gulf War, though, in real terms, the price of oil is still below that of 1980. This increase in prices, and the risk of further increments, justifies an evaluation of the consequences on global growth and inflation. This article presents a brief review of the recent evolution of the price of oil and tries to identify the main factors behind its increase. In addition, some factors that can influence the future evolution of the price of oil in the short and long run are presented, as well as an estimation of the effect of a further increase in the price of oil over growth and inflation for the main industrial economies.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 431.

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Date of creation: 16 Dec 2004
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:431

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Keywords: Oil price; growth; inflation; global economy;

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  1. Robert S. Pindyck, 2001. "The Dynamics of Commodity Spot and Futures Markets: A Primer," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-30.
  2. Thomas Dalsgaard & Christophe André & Pete Richardson, 2001. "Standard Shocks in the OECD Interlink Model," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 306, OECD Publishing.
  3. Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca & Sánchez, Marcelo, 2004. "Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 0362, European Central Bank.
  4. Peter Isard & Ben Hunt & Douglas Laxton, 2001. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Higher Oil Prices," IMF Working Papers 01/14, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Dieppe, Alistair & Henry, Jerome, 2004. "The euro area viewed as a single economy: how does it respond to shocks?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 833-875, September.
  6. Ray Barrell & Olga Pomerantz, 2004. "Oil Prices and the World Economy," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 152-177.
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