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How Effective is China’s Monetary Policy? An assessment of the link between the growth of monetary aggregates and inflation during the 2000s

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Abstract

The effectiveness of China’s monetary policy hinges on the existence of a robust link between the growth of monetary aggregates and inflation. This paper considers this link during the 2000s using Structural VAR models and simulated out-of-sample forecasting techniques. The results indicate that the link is far from robust. Such findings serve to underscore the importance of institutional reforms that will enable interest rates to play a more prominent role as an instrument of monetary policy.

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File URL: http://www.uq.edu.au/economics/abstract/435.pdf
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Paper provided by School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia in its series Discussion Papers Series with number 435.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:qld:uq2004:435

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  1. Ouyang, Alice Y. & Rajan, Ramkishen S. & Willett, Thomas D., 2010. "China as a reserve sink: The evidence from offset and sterilization coefficients," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 951-972, September.
  2. Reuven Glick & Michael Hutchison, 2008. "Navigating the trilemma: capital flows and monetary policy in China," Working Paper Series 2008-32, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Huayu Sun & Yue Ma, 2004. "Money and price relationship in China," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 225-247.
  4. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "Is There a Role for Monetary Aggregates in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 5845, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Chow, Gregory C., 1987. "Money and price level determination in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 319-333, September.
  6. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
  7. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  8. Peebles, Gavin, 1992. "Why the Quantity Theory of Money Is Not Applicable to China, Together with a Tested Theory That Is," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 23-42, March.
  9. James Laurenceson & Kam Ki Tang, 2007. "Opening China's Capital Account: Modeling the Capital Flow Response," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1-18.
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