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The distributive cycle: Evidence and current debates

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  • Jose Barrales-Ruiz, Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, Codrina Rada, Daniele Tavani, Rudiger von Arnim

Abstract

This paper surveys current debates on the distributive cycle. The literature builds on R.M. Goodwin’s seminal 1967 chapter titled “A growth cycle.” We review theoretical motivations for the distributive cycle, which, despite signif-icant differences, all imply that macroeconomic activity leads the labor share in a counter-clockwise cycle in the activity-labor share plane. Subsequently, we summarize and update evidence on the existence of a distributive cycle, with a focus on the post-war US macroeconomy. We analyze activity and labor share series and their interaction in the frequency domain, and also employ stan-dard vector autoregressions. Results confirm the distributive cycle for the US post-war period. We contextualize results vis-`a-vis current debates: (1) we consider a financial cycle, to rebut the theoretical possibility of “pseudo-Goodwin” cycles, (2) demonstrate that a suppressed labor share and stagnation are com-patible with short run Goodwin cycles, and argue that this link presents the way forward for research on secular stagnation.

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  • Jose Barrales-Ruiz, Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, Codrina Rada, Daniele Tavani, Rudiger von Arnim, 2021. "The distributive cycle: Evidence and current debates," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2021-01, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:uta:papers:2021-01
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    7. Marques, André M. & Lima, Gilberto Tadeu, 2022. "Testing for Granger causality in quantiles between the wage share in income and productive capacity utilization," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 290-312.
    8. Stamegna, Marco, 2022. "A Kaleckian growth model of secular stagnation with induced innovation," MPRA Paper 113794, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Ferri, Piero & Cristini, Annalisa & Tramontana, Fabio, 2023. "Meta-models of the Phillips curve and income distribution," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 215-232.
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    Keywords

    Distributive cycle; US labor share of income; neo-Goodwin. JEL Classification:E12; E24; E25; E32.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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