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Distributive And Demand Cycles In The Us Economy-A Structuralist Goodwin Model

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Author Info
Nelson H. Barbosa-Filho
Lance Taylor

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Abstract

There are regular counterclockwise cycles involving capacity utilization u (horizontal axis) and the labor share &psgr; (vertical axis) in the US economy since 1929. As in Goodwin's cyclical growth model, &psgr; can be interpreted as a Lotka-Volterra predator variable and u as prey. In a phase diagram, dynamics around the &udot;=0 schedule respond to effective demand that econometric estimation (1948-2002) shows to be profit-led. Distributive dynamics around the =0 curve demonstrate a long-term profit squeeze. Across cycles, the real wage and labor productivity grow at 0.57 per cent per quarter, holding the labor share broadly stable. Modeling the cycle in the (u, &psgr;) plane provides a parsimonious description of demand and distributive dynamics, consistent with the macroeconomics embedded in the work of Kalecki, Steindl, Goodwin and many subsequent authors. Copyright © 2006 The Authors; Journal compilation © 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Metroeconomica.

Volume (Year): 57 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 (07)
Pages: 389-411
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Handle: RePEc:bla:metroe:v:57:y:2006:i:3:p:389-411

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  1. Eckhard Hein & Artur Tarassow, 2008. "Distribution, aggregate demand and productivity growth - theory and empirical results for six OECD countries based on a Post-Kaleckian model," IMK Working Paper 18-2008, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute. [Downloadable!]
  2. zamparelli, luca, 2008. "Direction and intensity of technical change: a micro-founded growth model," MPRA Paper 10843, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Mario García Molina & Eleonora Herrera, 2008. "Are There Goodwin Employment-Distribution Cycles? Theoretical And Empirical Evidence," Documentos de Trabajo - Escuela de Economía 004685, UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL DE COLOMBIA - RCE. [Downloadable!]
  4. Luca Zamparelli, 2009. "Direction and Intensity of Technical Change: a Micro Model," Working Papers 4, Doctoral School of Economics, Sapienza University of Rome. [Downloadable!]
  5. Engelbert Stockhammer & Robert Stehrer, 2009. "Goodwin or Kalecki in Demand? Functional Income Distribution and Aggregate Demand in the Short Run," Working Papers wp203, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst. [Downloadable!]
  6. Codrina Rada, 2009. "Introducing Demographic Changes in a Model of Economic Growth and Income Distribution," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2009_01, University of Utah, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Nelson H. Barbosa Filho, 2004. "A Simple Model Of Demand-Led Growth And Income Distribution," Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 038, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
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