A Kaleckian growth model of secular stagnation with induced innovation

The present paper works out a demand-led growth model of a labour-constrained economy with an endogenous direction of technical change. It draws on the Kaleckian-Steindlian tradition to examine the short-run relation between income distribution, capacity utilization, and capital accumulation; on Goodwin-type growth cycle models to investigate the dynamic interaction between labour market and distributive conflict; on the induced innovation literature to link labour productivity growth to income distribution. The model defines a two-dimensional system of differential equations in the wage share and the employment rate at full capacity to investigate the properties of the long-run equilibrium. In a Kaleckian fashion, an endogenous rate of capacity utilization allows effective demand and income distribution to affect the long-run equilibrium. We find that: i) an exogenous increase in workers’ bargaining power raises the long-run labour share, capital accumulation, labour productivity growth, and real wage growth, regardless of the short-run demand and growth regime of the economy; ii) a positive institutional shock to the labour share may cause the long-run employment rate to fall even in a wage-led demand regime; conversely, iii) positive technology shocks reduce the long-run rate of growth of the economy in a wage-led growth regime; thus, strengthening labour market regulation emerges as an unambiguously better strategy to raise the long-run labour share, capital accumulation, and labour productivity growth.