IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ums/papers/2009-03.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Long waves and short cycles in a model of endogenous financial fragility

Author

Listed:
  • Soon Ryoo

    (University of Massachusetts, Amherst)

Abstract

This paper presents a stock-flow consistent macroeconomic model in which fi- nancial fragility in firm and household sectors evolves endogenously through the interaction between real and financial sectors. Changes in firms’ and households’ financial practices produce long waves. The Hopf bifurcation theorem is applied to clarify the conditions for the existence of limit cycles, and simulations illustrate stable limit cycles. The long waves are characterized by periodic economic crises following long expansions. Short cycles, generated by the interaction between effective demand and labor market dynamics, fluctuate around the long waves. JEL Categories: E12, E32, E44

Suggested Citation

  • Soon Ryoo, 2009. "Long waves and short cycles in a model of endogenous financial fragility," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2009-03, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ums:papers:2009-03
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.umass.edu/economics/publications/2009-03.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lance Taylor & Stephen A. O'Connell, 1985. "A Minsky Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 100(Supplemen), pages 871-885.
    2. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February.
    3. Marc Lavoie & Wynne Godley, 2012. "Kaleckian Models of Growth in a Coherent Stock–Flow Monetary Framework: A Kaldorian View," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Marc Lavoie & Gennaro Zezza (ed.), The Stock-Flow Consistent Approach, chapter 6, pages 123-156, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Semmler, Willi, 1987. "A macroeconomic limit cycle with financial perturbations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 469-495, September.
    5. Claudio H. Dos Santos & Gennaro Zezza, 2007. "A Simplified 'Benchmark” Stock-flow Consistent (SFC) Post-Keynesian Growth Model," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_503, Levy Economics Institute.
    6. Gilberto Tadeu Lima & Antonio J. A. Meirelles, 2007. "Macrodynamics of debt regimes, financial instability and growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 31(4), pages 563-580, July.
    7. Philip Arestis, 2002. "Financial crisis in Southeast Asia: dispelling illusion the Minskyan way," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(2), pages 237-260, March.
    8. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    9. Cynamon Barry Z. & Fazzari Steven M., 2008. "Household Debt in the Consumer Age: Source of Growth--Risk of Collapse," Capitalism and Society, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-32, October.
    10. Marc Jarsulic, 1989. "Endogenous Credit and Endogenous Business Cycles," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 35-48, September.
    11. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:28:y:2004:i:18:p:a0 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Peter Skott, 2012. "Theoretical And Empirical Shortcomings Of The Kaleckian Investment Function," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(1), pages 109-138, February.
    13. Marc Lavoie & Wynne Godley, 2002. "Kaleckian Models of Growth in a Coherent Stock-Flow Monetary Framework: A Kaldorian View," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 24(2), pages 277-311, December.
    14. Thomas I. Palley, 2013. "A Theory of Minsky Super-cycles and Financial Crises," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Financialization, chapter 8, pages 126-142, Palgrave Macmillan.
    15. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 141-206.
    16. Jan Kregel, 2008. "Minsky’s Cushions of Safety: Systemic Risk and the Crisis in the U.S. Subprime Mortgage Market," Economics Public Policy Brief Archive ppb_93, Levy Economics Institute.
    17. James Crotty, 2009. "Structural causes of the global financial crisis: a critical assessment of the 'new financial architecture'," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(4), pages 563-580, July.
    18. Taylor, Lance, 1985. "A Stagnationist Model of Economic Growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(4), pages 383-403, December.
    19. Peter Skott, 2010. "Growth, Instability and Cycles: Harrodian and Kaleckian Models of Accumulation and Income Distribution," Chapters, in: Mark Setterfield (ed.), Handbook of Alternative Theories of Economic Growth, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. L. Randall Wray, 2008. "Financial Markets Meltdown: What Can We Learn from Minsky," Economics Public Policy Brief Archive ppb_94, Levy Economics Institute.
    21. Peter Skott & Soon Ryoo, 2008. "Macroeconomic implications of financialisation," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(6), pages 827-862, November.
    22. Foley, Duncan K., 1987. "Liquidity-profit rate cycles in a capitalist economy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 363-376, September.
    23. Eric Nasica & Alain Raybaut, 2005. "Profits, confidence, and public deficits: modeling Minsky's institutional dynamics," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 136-154.
    24. Medio,Alfredo & Gallo,Giampaolo, 1995. "Chaotic Dynamics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521484619.
    25. Neri Salvadori (ed.), 2006. "Economic Growth and Distribution," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3798.
    26. Skott,Peter, 2008. "Conflict and Effective Demand in Economic Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521066310.
    27. Fazzari, Steven & Ferri, Piero & Greenberg, Edward, 2008. "Cash flow, investment, and Keynes-Minsky cycles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 65(3-4), pages 555-572, March.
    28. Neri Salvadori, 2004. "Economic growth and distribution: on the nature and causes of the wealth of nations," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 28(18), pages 1.
    29. Claudio H. Dos Santos & Gennaro Zezza, 2008. "A Simplified, ‘Benchmark’, Stock‐Flow Consistent Post‐Keynesian Growth Model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(3), pages 441-478, July.
    30. Marc Lavoie & Wynne Godley, 2000. "Kaleckian Models of Growth in a Stock-Flow Monetary Framework: A Neo-Kaldorian Model," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_302, Levy Economics Institute.
    31. Mark Setterfield, 2004. "Financial fragility, effective demand and the business cycle," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 207-223.
    32. Steve Keen, 1995. "Finance and Economic Breakdown: Modeling Minsky’s “Financial Instability Hypothesis”," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 607-635, July.
    33. Peter Skott*, 1981. "On The ‘Kaldorian’ Saving Function," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 563-581, November.
    34. Skott, Peter, 1981. "On the 'Kaldorian' Saving Function," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 563-581.
    35. Amitava Krishna Dutt, 1995. "Internal Finance And Monopoly Power In Capitalist Economies: A Reformulation Of Steindl'S Growth Model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(1), pages 16-34, February.
    36. Hyman P. Minsky, 1995. "Longer Waves in Financial Relations: Financial Factors in the More Severe Depressions II," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 83-96, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maria Nikolaidi & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2017. "Minsky Models: A Structured Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 1304-1331, December.
    2. Soon Ryoo, 2016. "Household debt and housing bubbles: a Minskian approach to boom-bust cycles," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 971-1006, December.
    3. Eckhard Hein, 2010. "Shareholder Value Orientation, Distribution And Growth—Short‐ And Medium‐Run Effects In A Kaleckian Model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 302-332, May.
    4. Michalis Nikiforos, 2015. "Uncertainty and Contradiction: An Essay on the Business Cycle," Working Papers 1514, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    5. Maria Nikolaidi, 2017. "Three decades of modelling Minsky: what we have learned and the way forward," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 14(2), pages 222-237, September.
    6. Michalis Nikiforos, 2017. "Uncertainty and Contradiction: An Essay on the Business Cycle," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 49(2), pages 247-264, June.
    7. Peter Skott, 2010. "Growth, Instability and Cycles: Harrodian and Kaleckian Models of Accumulation and Income Distribution," Chapters, in: Mark Setterfield (ed.), Handbook of Alternative Theories of Economic Growth, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Soon Ryoo, 2016. "Inequality of Income and Wealth in the Long Run: A Kaldorian Perspective," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(2), pages 429-457, May.
    9. Eckhard Hein, 2017. "Post-Keynesian macroeconomics since the mid 1990s: main developments," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 14(2), pages 131-172, September.
    10. Peter Skott, 2012. "Theoretical And Empirical Shortcomings Of The Kaleckian Investment Function," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(1), pages 109-138, February.
    11. Soumya Datta, 2016. "Macrodynamics of debt-financed investment-led growth with interest rate rules," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(4), pages 593-624, October.
    12. Christian Schoder, 2015. "Methodological, internal and ontological inconsistencies in the conventional micro-foundation of post-Keynesian theory," Working Papers 1518, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    13. Di Guilmi, Corrado & Carvalho, Laura, 2017. "The dynamics of leverage in a demand-driven model with heterogeneous firms," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 70-90.
    14. Soon Ryoo, 2013. "Minsky cycles in Keynesian models of growth and distribution," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 37-60, January.
    15. Marc Lavoie & Wynne Godley, 2000. "Kaleckian Models of Growth in a Stock-Flow Monetary Framework: A Neo-Kaldorian Model," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_302, Levy Economics Institute.
    16. Soon Ryoo & Peter Skott, 2008. "Financialization in Kaleckian Economies with and without Labor Constraints," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 5(2), pages 357-386.
    17. Sébastien Charles, 2008. "Teaching Minsky's financial instability hypothesis: a manageable suggestion," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 125-138, September.
    18. Datta, Soumya, 2012. "Cycles and Crises in a Model of Debt-financed Investment-led Growth," MPRA Paper 50200, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Dec 2012.
    19. Juan Laborda & Vicente Salas & Cristina Suárez, 2021. "Financial constraints on R&D projects and minsky moments: containing the credit cycle," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 1089-1111, September.
    20. Pintu Parui, 2022. "Corporate debt, endogenous dividend rate, instability and growth," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(2), pages 514-549, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    cycles; long waves; financial fragility; stock-flow consistency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ums:papers:2009-03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Daniele Girardi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deumaus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.